Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG-B1 | Near-term upside bias in natural gas futures is supported by elevated LNG / Middle East geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Hormuz / Qatar / Iran-linked infrastructure risk themes). | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 64 |
| natural_gas | NG-B2 | Volatility remains elevated because the dominant catalyst set is headline-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), creating fast intraday repricing risk. | 66 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 64 |
| natural_gas | NG-B3 | Upside may be capped if incremental storage/infrastructure development and/or de-escalation headlines reduce perceived supply-risk premium. | 38 | down | fading | 24h | false | 64 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260324T120000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG-B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term upside bias in natural gas futures is supported by elevated LNG / Middle East geopolitical supply-disruption risk (Hormuz / Qatar / Iran-linked infrastructure risk themes).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated because the dominant catalyst set is headline-driven (geopolitical escalation/de-escalation), creating fast intraday repricing risk.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Upside may be capped if incremental storage/infrastructure development and/or de-escalation headlines reduce perceived supply-risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 38,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage_levels",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 36,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2",
"NG-B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 3,
"C": 1,
"D": 25,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"window_0_6h": "strong",
"window_6_24h": "strong",
"window_24_72h": "background",
"window_gt_72h": "background"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"reason": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitical supply-risk premium; headline reversals can flip pricing quickly without warning."
},
{
"flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"reason": "Current admitted corpus is heavily weighted toward geopolitics/infrastructure risk; weaker representation of weather/storage confirmation in the admitted set."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"reason": "Several high-heat items exhibit spike-and-fade / late-surge temporal shapes, consistent with fast repricing risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent (multi-source) disruption confirmations arrive in the next 6h and no fresh counter-evidence emerges."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If rapid escalation/de-escalation headlines occur (especially around Hormuz/Qatar/Iran-linked LNG narratives)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence (credible de-escalation or supply-restoration signals) clusters within a 2–6h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If the signal becomes sparse or contradictory (contradiction ratio rises materially) and conviction drops below 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly as natural_gas; single-market synthesis enforced.",
"Directional mapping: the admitted corpus is risk-negative (geopolitical disruption), but interpreted as price-up pressure via supply-risk premium mechanics for natural gas/LNG-linked narratives.",
"No explicit contradiction set provided; counter-evidence is treated as thin/low-mass (mostly singleton infrastructure/storage items), raising fragility but not flipping direction.",
"No prior state memory provided; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}