Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_linkage (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T17:35:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | Near-term lithium demand tone is supported by broad, fresh battery/EV capacity and adoption narratives; this is net-supportive for lithium futures direction over 6h–24h. | 63 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | Recycling and chemistry innovation narratives add medium-term uncertainty (possible demand-intensity reduction and/or supply recycling offset), increasing fragility but not yet producing fresh bearish mass in the last 24h window. | 52 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-20260324T173500Z-lithium", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T17:35:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium demand tone is supported by broad, fresh battery/EV capacity and adoption narratives; this is net-supportive for lithium futures direction over 6h\u201324h.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (multi-entity, multi-source)", "EV adoption and policy support narratives", "High recent update density (multiple trend updates within last ~6\u201312h)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Indirect linkage risk: signals are sector-demand proxies rather than direct lithium balance/spot pricing", "Potential medium-term supply-offset themes (recycling) are present but not currently dominant as counterevidence" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Recycling and chemistry innovation narratives add medium-term uncertainty (possible demand-intensity reduction and/or supply recycling offset), increasing fragility but not yet producing fresh bearish mass in the last 24h window.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Battery recycling trend prominence (policy/regulatory framing)", "Battery chemistry / fabrication innovation trend recurrence" ], "contradicted_by": [ "No explicit fresh, directional bearish counter-signal cluster for lithium futures detected in admitted set" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 143, "B": 13, "C": 35, "D": 225, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 4, "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3, "stale_24_72h_signal_count": 2, "background_gt_72h_signal_count": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "indirect_driver_linkage", "market": "lithium", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Most admitted evidence is EV/battery ecosystem proxy demand; limited direct lithium supply-demand/spot balance evidence in this slice." }, { "flag": "background_stale_context_overhang", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "Several supporting narratives span >7 days; freshness is high today but the thesis includes slow-burn components." }, { "flag": "low_authority_share_present_but_not_blocking", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "Directional mass is broad; authority confirmation is present but mixed with a large Tier-D share." }, { "flag": "unknown_prior_state", "market": "lithium", "severity": "low", "detail": "No prior market_state_table/trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged'." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish monitoring while fresh multi-source battery/EV expansion signals continue and no fresh lithium-specific bearish counter-cluster emerges." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Elevate attention if contradiction ratio rises (new opposing evidence within <=24h) given proxy-driven nature of current signals." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate if a late-breaking (<=2h) lithium supply/price hard-invalidator appears (policy restriction removal, major supply restart, sharp demand cancellation cluster) with 2+ independent confirmations." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Fallback if proxy narratives decelerate and no lithium-specific directional evidence appears (conviction < 55 with rising fragility)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 12, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 14, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 22, "acceleration_score": 22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -32, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 16, "acceleration_score": 24, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -22, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 2, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 10, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradictions/risk_anomalies provided in input; counterevidence treated as low.", "VIP outliers were treated as low-weight due to single-source concentration; they did not drive direction.", "Timeseries buckets are approximated from available trend/VIP timestamps (no per-record timestamp distribution supplied)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }