Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-LI-RECENCY_SPARSE_INTRADAY
- generated_at: 2026-03-24 07:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term demand narrative for lithium strengthens as EV adoption + battery capacity build-out signals remain net-supportive. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Supply expansion / extraction development headlines (e.g., South America projects, producer activity) create an overhang that can cap lithium upside or introduce sharp pullbacks. | 55 | down | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
| lithium | B-LI-003 | Policy/industrial strategy support for critical minerals supply chains provides medium-term tailwind to lithium investment appetite and demand visibility. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260324T071500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T07:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term demand narrative for lithium strengthens as EV adoption + battery capacity build-out signals remain net-supportive.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand pulse (multi-entity, multi-source)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (CATL / OEM ecosystem)",
"Battery recycling investment/technology momentum (supports battery ecosystem scale-up)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply expansion / extraction development headlines (e.g., South America projects, producer activity) create an overhang that can cap lithium upside or introduce sharp pullbacks.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium extraction / project development newsflow",
"Producer/sector capacity additions"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Policy/industrial strategy support for critical minerals supply chains provides medium-term tailwind to lithium investment appetite and demand visibility.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US/Western critical mineral supply-chain development signalling",
"EV policy/subsidy backdrop (broad, persistent)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 79,
"B": 2,
"C": 18,
"D": 105,
"U": 0,
"note": "Aggregated from admitted trend bundles; may double-count overlapping sources across trends."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_to_6h_items": 6,
"fresh_6_to_24h_items": 3,
"fresh_24_to_72h_items": 2,
"stale_gt_72h_items": 1,
"note": "Items approximated from trend-level published/newest timestamps and VIP/risk timestamps."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-RECENCY_SPARSE_INTRADAY",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"type": "data_sparsity",
"detail": "Intraday (last-24h) evidence appears clustered into a small number of recent update windows; conviction supported by breadth at 30d scale, but intraday bucket density is thinner."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-SUPPLY_OVERHANG",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"type": "stale_context_overhang",
"detail": "Supply/extraction expansion narratives remain present and can counteract demand-led bullishness; monitor for fresh reinforcement on the supply side."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW_POLICY",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"detail": "Policy/cross-border signals can flip rapidly; no confirmed late-breaking invalidation detected in the admitted set."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain watch for continued fresh, multi-source EV/battery expansion confirmations within the next 6h while supply-expansion headlines do not accelerate."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal_watch if a fresh (<=2h) cluster of 2+ independent supply-glut / demand-slowdown signals appears, raising contradiction materially."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility_watch if policy/trade/customs-related risk signals escalate without corroborating detail."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 27,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as lithium; scope constrained to single-market output.",
"No explicit opposing (bearish) evidence objects were provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to structural supply-overhang themes rather than fresh counter-signal acceleration.",
"State_change set to new_bullish using a neutral baseline because no prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory was supplied."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}