Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-LI-RECENCY_SPARSE_INTRADAY
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24 07:15 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Near-term demand narrative for lithium strengthens as EV adoption + battery capacity build-out signals remain net-supportive. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
lithium B-LI-002 Supply expansion / extraction development headlines (e.g., South America projects, producer activity) create an overhang that can cap lithium upside or introduce sharp pullbacks. 55 down stable 24h false 48
lithium B-LI-003 Policy/industrial strategy support for critical minerals supply chains provides medium-term tailwind to lithium investment appetite and demand visibility. 58 up stable 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260324T071500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T07:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term demand narrative for lithium strengthens as EV adoption + battery capacity build-out signals remain net-supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand pulse (multi-entity, multi-source)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives (CATL / OEM ecosystem)",
 "Battery recycling investment/technology momentum (supports battery ecosystem scale-up)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Supply expansion / extraction development headlines (e.g., South America projects, producer activity) create an overhang that can cap lithium upside or introduce sharp pullbacks.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction / project development newsflow",
 "Producer/sector capacity additions"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Policy/industrial strategy support for critical minerals supply chains provides medium-term tailwind to lithium investment appetite and demand visibility.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "US/Western critical mineral supply-chain development signalling",
 "EV policy/subsidy backdrop (broad, persistent)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-LI-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 79,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 18,
 "D": 105,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Aggregated from admitted trend bundles; may double-count overlapping sources across trends."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_to_6h_items": 6,
 "fresh_6_to_24h_items": 3,
 "fresh_24_to_72h_items": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h_items": 1,
 "note": "Items approximated from trend-level published/newest timestamps and VIP/risk timestamps."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-RECENCY_SPARSE_INTRADAY",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "data_sparsity",
 "detail": "Intraday (last-24h) evidence appears clustered into a small number of recent update windows; conviction supported by breadth at 30d scale, but intraday bucket density is thinner."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-SUPPLY_OVERHANG",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "detail": "Supply/extraction expansion narratives remain present and can counteract demand-led bullishness; monitor for fresh reinforcement on the supply side."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-LI-NARRATIVE_WHIPSAW_POLICY",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "detail": "Policy/cross-border signals can flip rapidly; no confirmed late-breaking invalidation detected in the admitted set."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch for continued fresh, multi-source EV/battery expansion confirmations within the next 6h while supply-expansion headlines do not accelerate."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal_watch if a fresh (<=2h) cluster of 2+ independent supply-glut / demand-slowdown signals appears, raising contradiction materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility_watch if policy/trade/customs-related risk signals escalate without corroborating detail."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 27,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium; scope constrained to single-market output.",
 "No explicit opposing (bearish) evidence objects were provided; reversal risk elevated to medium primarily due to structural supply-overhang themes rather than fresh counter-signal acceleration.",
 "State_change set to new_bullish using a neutral baseline because no prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory was supplied."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}