Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-stale-context-overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24 08:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures (GC) directional bias is neutral/mixed over the next 6h–24h because the only gold-specific signals in the admitted corpus are stale and low-corroboration, limiting actionable directional mass. 58 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 Uncorroborated headlines about gold trade/traceability disruption remain a low-confidence potential volatility catalyst rather than a confirmed directional driver. 35 mixed stable 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures (GC) directional bias is neutral/mixed over the next 6h\u201324h because the only gold-specific signals in the admitted corpus are stale and low-corroboration, limiting actionable directional mass.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_gold_tagged_signals",
 "stale_signal_suppression"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Uncorroborated headlines about gold trade/traceability disruption remain a low-confidence potential volatility catalyst rather than a confirmed directional driver.",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_gold_supply_chain",
 "trade_disruption_headline_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 5,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 8,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-context-overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Gold-tagged evidence is entirely >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-data-sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "description": "Fewer than 3 corroborated, gold-mapped signals; directional output kept neutral/mixed to avoid forced bias."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-narrative-whipsaw",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "High fragility due to thin, low-authority inputs; any fresh macro/geopolitical confirmation could re-shape direction quickly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat until at least 3 fresh (<=72h), gold-mapped signals cohere in one direction with improved source diversity."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if new, multi-source gold-specific catalyst arrives (e.g., corroborated physical/ETF flow disruption)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch only if a fresh opposing gold-tagged signal cluster appears inside <=2h alongside a contradiction spike."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly: gold.",
 "Gold-mapped signals admitted: VIP-001 (gold trade disruption/traceability; single-source, Tier D), VIP-009 (GLD market dynamics; single record with missing/unknown authority metadata).",
 "All gold-mapped evidence is >72h old (stale); stale suppression applied.",
 "Most corpus trends/risk anomalies were geopolitical/monetary themes without explicit gold/XAU/bullion/GC linkage; they were not force-mapped to gold per workflow rules."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}