Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_gold_mapped (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold futures directional edge is not currently supported by sufficiently fresh, gold-mapped evidence; near-term outcomes are likely mixed/mean-reverting rather than trend-following. 60 mixed fading 24h false 82
gold B-gold-002 Operational/flow headlines touching physical gold trade/traceability may create idiosyncratic volatility, but evidence is single-source and stale; directional follow-through risk is low. 55 mixed fading 6h false 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 14,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures directional edge is not currently supported by sufficiently fresh, gold-mapped evidence; near-term outcomes are likely mixed/mean-reverting rather than trend-following.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_gold-mapped_signals",
 "staleness_overhang_(>72h)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Operational/flow headlines touching physical gold trade/traceability may create idiosyncratic volatility, but evidence is single-source and stale; directional follow-through risk is low.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "physical_trade_disruption_signal_(singleton)",
 "low_domain_diversity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 14,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_over_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "data_sparsity_gold_mapped",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fewer than 3 gold-mapped directional signals admitted; most other corpus items are geopolitics/macros but not safely mappable to gold by alias."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Admitted gold-related evidence is predominantly from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old vs snapshot 2026-03-24)."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Key gold-specific item(s) are singleton / low-domain-diversity VIP outliers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat while freshness_confidence=low AND directional_mass_score_0_100<35; re-evaluate on arrival of >=3 fresh (<=72h) gold-mapped signals."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if fresh gold-linked geopolitical/real-rates/USD evidence appears (<=24h) OR if contradiction ratio rises via opposing gold-specific signals."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 }
}