Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_gold_mapped (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gold | B-gold-001 | Gold futures directional edge is not currently supported by sufficiently fresh, gold-mapped evidence; near-term outcomes are likely mixed/mean-reverting rather than trend-following. | 60 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 82 |
| gold | B-gold-002 | Operational/flow headlines touching physical gold trade/traceability may create idiosyncratic volatility, but evidence is single-source and stale; directional follow-through risk is low. | 55 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 14,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures directional edge is not currently supported by sufficiently fresh, gold-mapped evidence; near-term outcomes are likely mixed/mean-reverting rather than trend-following.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_gold-mapped_signals",
"staleness_overhang_(>72h)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Operational/flow headlines touching physical gold trade/traceability may create idiosyncratic volatility, but evidence is single-source and stale; directional follow-through risk is low.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"physical_trade_disruption_signal_(singleton)",
"low_domain_diversity"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 22,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 14,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-001",
"B-gold-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "data_sparsity_gold_mapped",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fewer than 3 gold-mapped directional signals admitted; most other corpus items are geopolitics/macros but not safely mappable to gold by alias."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Admitted gold-related evidence is predominantly from 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old vs snapshot 2026-03-24)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Key gold-specific item(s) are singleton / low-domain-diversity VIP outliers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat while freshness_confidence=low AND directional_mass_score_0_100<35; re-evaluate on arrival of >=3 fresh (<=72h) gold-mapped signals."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if fresh gold-linked geopolitical/real-rates/USD evidence appears (<=24h) OR if contradiction ratio rises via opposing gold-specific signals."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
}
}