Snapshot
- subject_area: Crude oil (Brent-linked)
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_volatility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24 23:59 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-001 |
Near-term oil pricing remains biased upward as geopolitical/maritime disruption risk premium stays elevated (chokepoint and shipping-risk narratives dominate the freshest corpus). |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
56 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence favours higher crude due to disruption/tightness tail risks (shipping-route risk, refinery/outage chatter, and Gulf-related supply anxiety). |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-003 |
Macro/central-bank policy headwinds can cap upside and raise reversal risk if demand-risk framing strengthens versus disruption framing. |
46 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-20260324T235959Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T23:59:59Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Crude oil (Brent-linked)",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term oil pricing remains biased upward as geopolitical/maritime disruption risk premium stays elevated (chokepoint and shipping-risk narratives dominate the freshest corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoints",
"supply_disruption_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence favours higher crude due to disruption/tightness tail risks (shipping-route risk, refinery/outage chatter, and Gulf-related supply anxiety).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"refining_constraints",
"inventory_storage_risk",
"national_oil_companies_operational_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/central-bank policy headwinds can cap upside and raise reversal risk if demand-risk framing strengthens versus disruption framing.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"policy_rate_expectations",
"risk_off_impulse"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-001",
"B-CO-002",
"B-CO-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 264,
"B": 19,
"C": 10,
"D": 293,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": {
"count": 7,
"share_0_to_1": 0.58
},
"fresh_6_24h": {
"count": 5,
"share_0_to_1": 0.42
},
"stale_gt_24h": {
"count": 0,
"share_0_to_1": 0.0
}
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-CO-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"label": "geopolitical_volatility",
"description": "Geopolitical/shipping-route risk premium can gap and mean-revert quickly (spike-and-fade patterns present), raising whipsaw risk even under bullish net pressure."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-CO-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "macro_counterpressure",
"description": "Macro/central-bank policy narrative is credible counter-evidence; if it accelerates, reversal risk rises from medium to high."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-CO-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "low",
"label": "single_source_noise_floor",
"description": "VIP/risk-anomaly singletons exist; treated as secondary until corroborated (do not drive direction alone)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh multi-source escalation/chokepoint updates persist without a matching rise in macro-demand downside evidence."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any abrupt de-escalation or confirmation of disruption/outage headlines; expect fast repricing due to event-driven nature."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "A clear pickup in fresh, independent demand-destruction / tighter-policy signals that narrows the bullish net-pressure spread."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.091,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.111,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.182,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.133,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.118,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.308,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.417,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.333,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.267,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.286,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.267,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 75,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as unchanged rather than assuming a new regime flip.",
"Directional call is driven primarily by broad, fresh disruption-risk evidence; macro policy headwind treated as counterevidence (reversal_risk=medium)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}