Snapshot

  • subject_area: Crude oil (Brent-linked)
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_volatility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24 23:59 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-001 Near-term oil pricing remains biased upward as geopolitical/maritime disruption risk premium stays elevated (chokepoint and shipping-risk narratives dominate the freshest corpus). 62 up accelerating 6h false 56
crude_oil B-CO-002 Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence favours higher crude due to disruption/tightness tail risks (shipping-route risk, refinery/outage chatter, and Gulf-related supply anxiety). 60 up stable 24h false 56
crude_oil B-CO-003 Macro/central-bank policy headwinds can cap upside and raise reversal risk if demand-risk framing strengthens versus disruption framing. 46 mixed stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis-20260324T235959Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T23:59:59Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Crude oil (Brent-linked)",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term oil pricing remains biased upward as geopolitical/maritime disruption risk premium stays elevated (chokepoint and shipping-risk narratives dominate the freshest corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime_chokepoints",
 "supply_disruption_risk_premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the balance of evidence favours higher crude due to disruption/tightness tail risks (shipping-route risk, refinery/outage chatter, and Gulf-related supply anxiety).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "refining_constraints",
 "inventory_storage_risk",
 "national_oil_companies_operational_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/central-bank policy headwinds can cap upside and raise reversal risk if demand-risk framing strengthens versus disruption framing.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "policy_rate_expectations",
 "risk_off_impulse"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-001",
 "B-CO-002",
 "B-CO-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 264,
 "B": 19,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 293,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": {
 "count": 7,
 "share_0_to_1": 0.58
 },
 "fresh_6_24h": {
 "count": 5,
 "share_0_to_1": 0.42
 },
 "stale_gt_24h": {
 "count": 0,
 "share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-CO-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "label": "geopolitical_volatility",
 "description": "Geopolitical/shipping-route risk premium can gap and mean-revert quickly (spike-and-fade patterns present), raising whipsaw risk even under bullish net pressure."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-CO-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "label": "macro_counterpressure",
 "description": "Macro/central-bank policy narrative is credible counter-evidence; if it accelerates, reversal risk rises from medium to high."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-CO-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "label": "single_source_noise_floor",
 "description": "VIP/risk-anomaly singletons exist; treated as secondary until corroborated (do not drive direction alone)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh multi-source escalation/chokepoint updates persist without a matching rise in macro-demand downside evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Any abrupt de-escalation or confirmation of disruption/outage headlines; expect fast repricing due to event-driven nature."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "A clear pickup in fresh, independent demand-destruction / tighter-policy signals that narrows the bullish net-pressure spread."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 10,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.091,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -25,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.111,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
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 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -5,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.143,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 25,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.083,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.182,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 20,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.133,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.125,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 75,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 75,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.118,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.308,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.417,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.333,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.267,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.286,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.267,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-25T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 75,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change left as unchanged rather than assuming a new regime flip.",
 "Directional call is driven primarily by broad, fresh disruption-risk evidence; macro policy headwind treated as counterevidence (reversal_risk=medium)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}