Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24 07:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
- completion_state: ready_for_delivery
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
B-copper-001 |
Copper futures have an upside bias over the next 6h, supported by fresh pro-demand / energy-transition and infrastructure-linked narrative flow with little explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus. |
61 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
45 |
| copper |
B-copper-002 |
Copper futures remain supported on a 24h horizon by broad, multi-source reinforcement of demand-linked themes (grid modernisation, electrification, EV infrastructure) and major-miner/supply-chain coverage; downside pressure is not strongly represented in the current admitted set. |
64 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
| copper |
B-copper-003 |
Directional conviction is moderated by narrative breadth vs. price-specific immediacy (many signals are slow-burn and cross-domain), increasing fragility if macro/trade-policy tone shifts without fresh confirming copper-specific evidence. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
45 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260324T070000Z-copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures have an upside bias over the next 6h, supported by fresh pro-demand / energy-transition and infrastructure-linked narrative flow with little explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures remain supported on a 24h horizon by broad, multi-source reinforcement of demand-linked themes (grid modernisation, electrification, EV infrastructure) and major-miner/supply-chain coverage; downside pressure is not strongly represented in the current admitted set.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy",
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Directional conviction is moderated by narrative breadth vs. price-specific immediacy (many signals are slow-burn and cross-domain), increasing fragility if macro/trade-policy tone shifts without fresh confirming copper-specific evidence.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 136,
"B": 13,
"C": 12,
"D": 161,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 4,
"fresh_24_72h": 2,
"stale_gt_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of supporting narratives are slow-burn (>72h span) even though the set has fresh updates; conviction could soften if fresh reinforcement fades."
},
{
"flag": "data_shape_cross_domain",
"market": "copper",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Several high-volume signals are thematic (energy transition / infrastructure) rather than direct, near-term copper balance-sheet shocks; increases fragility vs. macro headline swings."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6h maintains fresh, multi-source copper-positive flow (demand/infrastructure/energy-transition) without emergence of fresh opposing macro/trade shock signals in the admitted corpus."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent records within 2h) that materially raises contradiction and flips net directional score toward neutral/bearish."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines spike (policy/tariff rhetoric) with unclear copper balance impact, raising narrative whipsaw risk despite otherwise bullish demand themes."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit per-record physics/state-memory was provided; synthesis used available proxies (relevance, sentiment labels, authority tier counts, evidence recency proxies, and temporal profiles).",
"No admitted contradictions were present in the input bundle; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by fragility/staleness rather than observed counterevidence.",
"State change computed against unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> current bullish => new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}