Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24 07:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  • completion_state: ready_for_delivery

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures have an upside bias over the next 6h, supported by fresh pro-demand / energy-transition and infrastructure-linked narrative flow with little explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus. 61 up accelerating 6h false 45
copper B-copper-002 Copper futures remain supported on a 24h horizon by broad, multi-source reinforcement of demand-linked themes (grid modernisation, electrification, EV infrastructure) and major-miner/supply-chain coverage; downside pressure is not strongly represented in the current admitted set. 64 up stable 24h false 45
copper B-copper-003 Directional conviction is moderated by narrative breadth vs. price-specific immediacy (many signals are slow-burn and cross-domain), increasing fragility if macro/trade-policy tone shifts without fresh confirming copper-specific evidence. 58 mixed stable 24h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260324T070000Z-copper",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures have an upside bias over the next 6h, supported by fresh pro-demand / energy-transition and infrastructure-linked narrative flow with little explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures remain supported on a 24h horizon by broad, multi-source reinforcement of demand-linked themes (grid modernisation, electrification, EV infrastructure) and major-miner/supply-chain coverage; downside pressure is not strongly represented in the current admitted set.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy",
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Directional conviction is moderated by narrative breadth vs. price-specific immediacy (many signals are slow-burn and cross-domain), increasing fragility if macro/trade-policy tone shifts without fresh confirming copper-specific evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 136,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 161,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 4,
 "fresh_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of supporting narratives are slow-burn (>72h span) even though the set has fresh updates; conviction could soften if fresh reinforcement fades."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_shape_cross_domain",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Several high-volume signals are thematic (energy transition / infrastructure) rather than direct, near-term copper balance-sheet shocks; increases fragility vs. macro headline swings."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 6h maintains fresh, multi-source copper-positive flow (demand/infrastructure/energy-transition) without emergence of fresh opposing macro/trade shock signals in the admitted corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh opposing evidence appears (>=2 independent records within 2h) that materially raises contradiction and flips net directional score toward neutral/bearish."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines spike (policy/tariff rhetoric) with unclear copper balance impact, raising narrative whipsaw risk despite otherwise bullish demand themes."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 36,
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 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit per-record physics/state-memory was provided; synthesis used available proxies (relevance, sentiment labels, authority tier counts, evidence recency proxies, and temporal profiles).",
 "No admitted contradictions were present in the input bundle; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by fragility/staleness rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "State change computed against unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline -> current bullish => new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}