Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_dominance (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T23:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term coffee futures bias is mildly supportive (upward pressure) from persistent logistics/friction and crop-risk narratives, but price direction remains non-decisive due to mostly indirect evidence. | 56 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated versus a clean-trend regime, as multiple cross-domain risk themes (weather/crop risk + logistics disruptions + regulatory friction) are simultaneously active. | 63 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260324T231500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T23:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures bias is mildly supportive (upward pressure) from persistent logistics/friction and crop-risk narratives, but price direction remains non-decisive due to mostly indirect evidence.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Evidence set is dominated by broad supply-chain/macro items rather than direct coffee-specific price/flow deltas",
"Several late signals are single-source VIP items (fragility elevated)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated versus a clean-trend regime, as multiple cross-domain risk themes (weather/crop risk + logistics disruptions + regulatory friction) are simultaneously active.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"shipping_freight",
"trade_regulation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of explicit opposing evidence does not equal confirmation; directional signal remains ambiguous"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 1,
"C": 1,
"D": 38,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 3,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 2,
"mid_24_72h_signal_count": 3,
"stale_72h_plus_signal_count": 4
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "indirect_driver_dominance",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most admitted signals are cross-domain (logistics/regulation/weather narratives) rather than explicit coffee futures flow/price evidence, reducing directional clarity."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_vip_concentration",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several of the freshest items are single-source VIP outliers; treat as fragile until corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_uncertainty",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No explicit contradiction objects were provided, but thematic polarity is mixed (risk/disruption vs growth narratives)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_state=neutral_mixed and conviction_score_0_100 < 55."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) weather/crop or shipping disruption confirmations arrive from 2+ independent sources, expect higher intraday swings."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a clean, coffee-specific opposing driver emerges (e.g., credible supply relief / logistics normalization) within the last 2\u20136h window, reassess bias."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": -1,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table was provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.",
"Directional scoring is constrained by indirectness: many signals are logistics/regulatory/weather narratives without explicit coffee futures price/positioning deltas.",
"Timeseries buckets are constructed from high-level signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk object timestamps). Evidence-level timestamps were not provided, so bucket counts are conservative."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}