Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: indirect_driver_dominance (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24T23:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures bias is mildly supportive (upward pressure) from persistent logistics/friction and crop-risk narratives, but price direction remains non-decisive due to mostly indirect evidence. 56 up stable 24h false 62
coffee B-coffee-002 Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated versus a clean-trend regime, as multiple cross-domain risk themes (weather/crop risk + logistics disruptions + regulatory friction) are simultaneously active. 63 mixed accelerating 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260324T231500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T23:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures bias is mildly supportive (upward pressure) from persistent logistics/friction and crop-risk narratives, but price direction remains non-decisive due to mostly indirect evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Evidence set is dominated by broad supply-chain/macro items rather than direct coffee-specific price/flow deltas",
 "Several late signals are single-source VIP items (fragility elevated)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures volatility risk is elevated versus a clean-trend regime, as multiple cross-domain risk themes (weather/crop risk + logistics disruptions + regulatory friction) are simultaneously active.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "shipping_freight",
 "trade_regulation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of explicit opposing evidence does not equal confirmation; directional signal remains ambiguous"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 38,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 2,
 "mid_24_72h_signal_count": 3,
 "stale_72h_plus_signal_count": 4
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "indirect_driver_dominance",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most admitted signals are cross-domain (logistics/regulation/weather narratives) rather than explicit coffee futures flow/price evidence, reducing directional clarity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_vip_concentration",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several of the freshest items are single-source VIP outliers; treat as fragile until corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_uncertainty",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No explicit contradiction objects were provided, but thematic polarity is mixed (risk/disruption vs growth narratives)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional_state=neutral_mixed and conviction_score_0_100 < 55."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) weather/crop or shipping disruption confirmations arrive from 2+ independent sources, expect higher intraday swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a clean, coffee-specific opposing driver emerges (e.g., credible supply relief / logistics normalization) within the last 2\u20136h window, reassess bias."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": -1,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 21,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.57,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit trend_state_memory or prior market_state_table was provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior.",
 "Directional scoring is constrained by indirectness: many signals are logistics/regulatory/weather narratives without explicit coffee futures price/positioning deltas.",
 "Timeseries buckets are constructed from high-level signal timestamps (trend/vip/risk object timestamps). Evidence-level timestamps were not provided, so bucket counts are conservative."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}