Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics_logistics (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-24T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term supply-chain and trade/logistics disruption risk remains elevated, sustaining upward price pressure risk for coffee futures. 63 up accelerating 6h false 55
coffee B-coffee-002 Consumption / consumer-preference signals remain supportive, adding modest upward bias to coffee futures over the next 24h window. 58 up stable 24h false 55
coffee B-coffee-003 Some trade/regulatory developments in maritime transport may reduce friction over time, partially offsetting disruption-driven upside pressure. 45 down fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-chain and trade/logistics disruption risk remains elevated, sustaining upward price pressure risk for coffee futures.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical/trade logistics disruption cluster (shipping + air freight)",
 "Maritime/route risk spillovers into agricultural softs logistics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Consumption / consumer-preference signals remain supportive, adding modest upward bias to coffee futures over the next 24h window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Coffee shop demand / consumer preference trend",
 "Branded channel activity (large retailers/coffee chains) as demand proxy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Some trade/regulatory developments in maritime transport may reduce friction over time, partially offsetting disruption-driven upside pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 45,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory/operational adjustments in maritime transport"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-coffee-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 138,
 "B": 16,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 312,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 9,
 "stale_over_24h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics_logistics",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Primary upside drivers are disruption-risk narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing reversal/mean-reversion risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "indirect_driver_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is cross-commodity/logistics-context rather than coffee-origin crop-condition specificity."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "flag": "singleton_echo_risk_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "VIP outliers include several single-source items (high concentration), kept as low-weight context only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) disruption-linked updates persist without comparable counterevidence, maintain bullish monitoring bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a credible fresh counter-signal appears (e.g., confirmed logistics normalisation or supply relief) across >=2 independent sources within 2h, treat as potential bullish-to-neutral transition."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical/shipping headlines accelerate (freshness spike + contradiction rise), expect higher intraday volatility risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional score drops back into [-20,+20] (net sentiment fades) due to lack of fresh follow-through, treat as rangebound."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Per-record timestamp distribution not provided to 6B; timeseries buckets are derived conservatively from each admitted signal's newest update timestamp proxy plus background persistence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}