Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics_logistics (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term supply-chain and trade/logistics disruption risk remains elevated, sustaining upward price pressure risk for coffee futures. | 63 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Consumption / consumer-preference signals remain supportive, adding modest upward bias to coffee futures over the next 24h window. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Some trade/regulatory developments in maritime transport may reduce friction over time, partially offsetting disruption-driven upside pressure. | 45 | down | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-coffee-2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-chain and trade/logistics disruption risk remains elevated, sustaining upward price pressure risk for coffee futures.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical/trade logistics disruption cluster (shipping + air freight)",
"Maritime/route risk spillovers into agricultural softs logistics"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Consumption / consumer-preference signals remain supportive, adding modest upward bias to coffee futures over the next 24h window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Coffee shop demand / consumer preference trend",
"Branded channel activity (large retailers/coffee chains) as demand proxy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Some trade/regulatory developments in maritime transport may reduce friction over time, partially offsetting disruption-driven upside pressure.",
"probability_pct": 45,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Regulatory/operational adjustments in maritime transport"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 76,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 138,
"B": 16,
"C": 12,
"D": 312,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 9,
"stale_over_24h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_geopolitics_logistics",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Primary upside drivers are disruption-risk narratives that can de-escalate quickly, increasing reversal/mean-reversion risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "indirect_driver_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is cross-commodity/logistics-context rather than coffee-origin crop-condition specificity."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"flag": "singleton_echo_risk_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"details": "VIP outliers include several single-source items (high concentration), kept as low-weight context only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) disruption-linked updates persist without comparable counterevidence, maintain bullish monitoring bias."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible fresh counter-signal appears (e.g., confirmed logistics normalisation or supply relief) across >=2 independent sources within 2h, treat as potential bullish-to-neutral transition."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical/shipping headlines accelerate (freshness spike + contradiction rise), expect higher intraday volatility risk."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score drops back into [-20,+20] (net sentiment fades) due to lack of fresh follow-through, treat as rangebound."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
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"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
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"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Per-record timestamp distribution not provided to 6B; timeseries buckets are derived conservatively from each admitted signal's newest update timestamp proxy plus background persistence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}