Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: Geopolitical/chokepoint risk-premium dominance (event-driven)
- generated_at: 2026-03-24T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-01 |
Geopolitical escalation and shipping-route/chokepoint risk (Hormuz-style risk premium) is sustaining upside pressure for Brent-linked crude futures over the next 6–24 hours. |
67 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-02 |
The dominant near-term pricing mechanism is risk-premium expansion (not confirmed physical outage), making the bullish bias conditionally strong but structurally fragile if de-escalation headlines emerge. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B-crude-03 |
Macro/demand and USD-linked narratives are present but currently secondary to geopolitical/shipping risk in the last ~24 hours of evidence. |
60 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260324T120000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation and shipping-route/chokepoint risk (Hormuz-style risk premium) is sustaining upside pressure for Brent-linked crude futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Iran-related geopolitical conflict escalation signals",
"Maritime chokepoint and tanker-route disruption risk",
"Broad multi-source coverage with late-surge temporal profile"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro-demand slowdown risk narratives",
"USD strength / dollar-fluctuation headwind narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "The dominant near-term pricing mechanism is risk-premium expansion (not confirmed physical outage), making the bullish bias conditionally strong but structurally fragile if de-escalation headlines emerge.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Concentration of drivers in geopolitical/security arenas",
"Event-driven narrative with fast velocity hints"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Absence (in admitted set) of hard supply-loss confirmation",
"Event-risk mean reversion/de-escalation potential"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-crude-03",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/demand and USD-linked narratives are present but currently secondary to geopolitical/shipping risk in the last ~24 hours of evidence.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"US Dollar Index fluctuations theme present",
"Economic growth sensitivity narratives present"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Higher-frequency geopolitical shock coverage dominating recency-weighted heat"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-crude-01",
"B-crude-02",
"B-crude-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 1,
"C": 1,
"D": 23,
"U": 0,
"approximate": true,
"approximation_method": "median_of_admitted_trend_authority_tier_counts; overlaps_across_trends_possible"
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 4,
"signals_6_24h": 7,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 0,
"approximate": true,
"approximation_method": "based_on_newest_timestamps_and_temporal_profile_shapes"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-geo-risk-premium",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"label": "Geopolitical/chokepoint risk-premium dominance (event-driven)",
"details": "Directional mass is strong, but driven mainly by conflict + maritime security narratives; reversal can occur on de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-macro-headwind",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"label": "Macro-demand / USD headwind present",
"details": "Demand-growth downside and USD-linked narratives exist as counterweight but are not dominant in the freshest window."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-volatility",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"label": "High volatility regime risk",
"details": "Late-surge evidence profile + security escalation themes imply higher whipsaw risk even with bullish state."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish state persists AND no credible de-escalation / shipping-risk relief signals emerge in the next 2\u20136 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid headline cycle around Hormuz/shipping security, insurance, naval action, or confirmed incident reports."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposite-direction evidence appears (de-escalation / route normalisation) with 2+ independent sources inside a 2-hour window."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if evidence stream degrades materially (fresh evidence count collapses) OR contradiction spikes sharply."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-24T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-24T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Admitted set dominated by Iran/geopolitics + maritime chokepoint disruption themes; treated as bullish via risk-premium channel.",
"No explicit contradictions provided in input; reversal risk set to medium due to event-driven regime (de-escalation risk), not due to in-corpus counterevidence.",
"state_change=unchanged because no prior market-state memory was provided (unknown_prior).",
"Timeseries values are conservative derivatives from admitted trend recency/temporal profiles (distribution within the hour is not available in the provided cache)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}