Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-NG-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23T12:01:49Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term (6h-24h) upside skew for natural gas futures persists as LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk headlines remain dominant in the admitted corpus. 63 up accelerating 24h false 58
natural_gas B-NG-002 Volatility risk is elevated: the current bullish skew is headline-driven and therefore prone to fast fade if escalation expectations cool or if operational disruption signals fail to corroborate. 67 mixed stable 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260323T120149Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T12:01:49Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h-24h) upside skew for natural gas futures persists as LNG/geopolitical supply-disruption risk headlines remain dominant in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "production_outages",
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Limited direct admitted evidence on US storage/demand balance (fundamental confirmation gap)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: the current bullish skew is headline-driven and therefore prone to fast fade if escalation expectations cool or if operational disruption signals fail to corroborate.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_geopolitics",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "lng_export_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 28,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 3,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "stale_24_72h": 3,
 "stale_over_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Portion of the supportive narrative originates from >72h context; weights were downshifted to prevent stale dominance."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Direction is supported mainly by geopolitics/LNG-disruption headlines; these can reverse quickly without structural follow-through."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "type": "fundamental_confirmation_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted signals are heavily geopolitics/infrastructure weighted with limited explicit storage/demand balance confirmation."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) independent disruption or LNG-flow constraint signals appear without comparable fresh de-escalation signals."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence accelerates (multiple independent updates inside 2-6h window) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) de-escalation/normalisation signals arrive that directly negate disruption-risk thesis."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:01:49Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:01:49Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 62,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 4,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Interpretation note: many admitted items have 'Negative' sentiment labels (risk tone) but map to upside price risk for natural_gas via supply-disruption/geopolitics channels.",
 "Prior state unavailable; state_change computed assuming neutral baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}