Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-03-23 06:12 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG-B1 | Elevated Middle East / Qatar-linked LNG disruption and energy-security headline flow is increasing upside risk-premium (net upward pressure) for natural gas futures over the next 6–24h. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | NG-B2 | The current bullish bias is fragile and headline-driven; rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines could quickly compress the risk premium (raising reversal/whipsaw risk). | 64 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-2026-03-23T06:12:37Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T06:12:37Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG-B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Elevated Middle East / Qatar-linked LNG disruption and energy-security headline flow is increasing upside risk-premium (net upward pressure) for natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"LNG supply disruption risk: Qatar / Ras Laffan-related disruption framing",
"Broader geopolitical energy-security escalation framing (incl. Hormuz-adjacent narratives)",
"High source breadth with meaningful Tier-A presence (e.g., Reuters/FT anchors inside admitted trend set)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "The current bullish bias is fragile and headline-driven; rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines could quickly compress the risk premium (raising reversal/whipsaw risk).",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical-risk narratives can resolve abruptly",
"Cross-market transmission uncertainty (global LNG vs Henry Hub linkage)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0,
"note": "Authority-tier counts at the market-row level are conservative due to evidence-bundle overlap across admitted trends; authority confirmation is reflected primarily via authority_confirmation_score_0_100."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.38,
"fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.42,
"mid_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.16,
"stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.04
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Dominant catalysts are geopolitical / disruption headlines; price bias can swing on incremental confirmation/denial."
},
{
"flag": "cross_market_transmission_uncertainty",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Signal set is heavy on global LNG/Qatar/Hormuz narratives; pass-through to NG (Henry Hub) can be uneven vs Europe/JKM."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Some supporting narratives originate >72h ago; current direction remains supported by fresh late-surge evidence, but older context may inflate perceived persistence."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_core_arenas",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Within this batch, direct signals on US weather-driven demand, storage trajectory, and production outages are comparatively underrepresented versus geopolitics."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent Tier-A confirmations of LNG disruption / escalation arrive within the next 6h and the directional_score_signed stays >= +25 across consecutive buckets.",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 in the next 6h (e.g., credible de-escalation/normalisation headlines) while recent buckets show falling directional_score_signed (negative velocity).",
"action_label": "reversal_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (fresh_evidence_count sustained) but directional_score_signed oscillates within [-15, +15] (whipsaw regime).",
"action_label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence collapses (fresh_evidence_count near zero) and the thesis becomes primarily stale (>72h) without renewal.",
"action_label": "stay_flat"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope fixed to natural_gas (explicit).",
"Admitted signals are dominated by LNG/geopolitical disruption-risk narratives (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-adjacent). This supports an upside risk-premium thesis but remains fragile due to fast headline reversibility and uncertain Henry Hub transmission.",
"No explicit contradiction records were provided in this batch; reversal risk is therefore driven more by catalyst fragility than by observed counterevidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}