Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: headline_driven_volatility
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23 06:12 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas NG-B1 Elevated Middle East / Qatar-linked LNG disruption and energy-security headline flow is increasing upside risk-premium (net upward pressure) for natural gas futures over the next 6–24h. 58 up accelerating 24h false 66
natural_gas NG-B2 The current bullish bias is fragile and headline-driven; rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines could quickly compress the risk premium (raising reversal/whipsaw risk). 64 mixed stable 6h false 66

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-2026-03-23T06:12:37Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T06:12:37Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Elevated Middle East / Qatar-linked LNG disruption and energy-security headline flow is increasing upside risk-premium (net upward pressure) for natural gas futures over the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG supply disruption risk: Qatar / Ras Laffan-related disruption framing",
 "Broader geopolitical energy-security escalation framing (incl. Hormuz-adjacent narratives)",
 "High source breadth with meaningful Tier-A presence (e.g., Reuters/FT anchors inside admitted trend set)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "NG-B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "The current bullish bias is fragile and headline-driven; rapid de-escalation / clarification headlines could quickly compress the risk premium (raising reversal/whipsaw risk).",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical-risk narratives can resolve abruptly",
 "Cross-market transmission uncertainty (global LNG vs Henry Hub linkage)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "NG-B1",
 "NG-B2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Authority-tier counts at the market-row level are conservative due to evidence-bundle overlap across admitted trends; authority confirmation is reflected primarily via authority_confirmation_score_0_100."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_share_0_to_1": 0.38,
 "fresh_6_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.42,
 "mid_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.16,
 "stale_gt_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.04
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_driven_volatility",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Dominant catalysts are geopolitical / disruption headlines; price bias can swing on incremental confirmation/denial."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_market_transmission_uncertainty",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Signal set is heavy on global LNG/Qatar/Hormuz narratives; pass-through to NG (Henry Hub) can be uneven vs Europe/JKM."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some supporting narratives originate >72h ago; current direction remains supported by fresh late-surge evidence, but older context may inflate perceived persistence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_in_core_arenas",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Within this batch, direct signals on US weather-driven demand, storage trajectory, and production outages are comparatively underrepresented versus geopolitics."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent Tier-A confirmations of LNG disruption / escalation arrive within the next 6h and the directional_score_signed stays >= +25 across consecutive buckets.",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 in the next 6h (e.g., credible de-escalation/normalisation headlines) while recent buckets show falling directional_score_signed (negative velocity).",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (fresh_evidence_count sustained) but directional_score_signed oscillates within [-15, +15] (whipsaw regime).",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence collapses (fresh_evidence_count near zero) and the thesis becomes primarily stale (>72h) without renewal.",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope fixed to natural_gas (explicit).",
 "Admitted signals are dominated by LNG/geopolitical disruption-risk narratives (Qatar/Iran/Hormuz-adjacent). This supports an upside risk-premium thesis but remains fragile due to fast headline reversibility and uncertain Henry Hub transmission.",
 "No explicit contradiction records were provided in this batch; reversal risk is therefore driven more by catalyst fragility than by observed counterevidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}