Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-driver_ambiguity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23T13:40:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Near-term lithium futures pressure is mixed because EV adoption/manufacturing expansion signals (demand-supportive) are being offset by recycling/extraction-technology and new-project narratives (supply/availability-supportive). 63 mixed stable 24h false 62
lithium B-lithium-002 Upside (bullish) impulse for lithium futures over the next 24h is capped unless demand-side signals arrive without simultaneous supply-side reinforcement, because the freshest cluster skews toward recycling/extraction capacity narratives. 58 flat fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260323T134000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T13:40:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures pressure is mixed because EV adoption/manufacturing expansion signals (demand-supportive) are being offset by recycling/extraction-technology and new-project narratives (supply/availability-supportive).",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption/scale-up headlines (OEMs and major EV players)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives",
 "Battery recycling scaling narratives (secondary supply)",
 "Lithium extraction technology / project development narratives (primary supply)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If EV demand narratives translate into immediate procurement tightness faster than supply additions"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside (bullish) impulse for lithium futures over the next 24h is capped unless demand-side signals arrive without simultaneous supply-side reinforcement, because the freshest cluster skews toward recycling/extraction capacity narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh recycling/extraction-tech narratives concentrated in the most recent window",
 "Ongoing policy/EV adoption headlines that are supportive but not uniquely lithium-tightening"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A discrete demand shock (e.g., procurement/stockpiling) appearing in the fresh window",
 "A hard supply disruption signal entering within the last 6h"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 158,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 40,
 "D": 281,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate roll-up by summing per-trend tier counts; overlap across trends likely (double-count risk)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 6,
 "stale_over_72h_signal_count": 0,
 "note": "Counted at signal-level using newest_timestamp proxies per trend/VIP/risk record; not a de-duplicated record-level measure."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-driver_ambiguity",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Most admitted signals are directionally positive for the EV/battery ecosystem but have mixed first-order implications for lithium futures (demand-up vs supply/availability-up)."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Fresh cluster includes both demand-scale and supply/recycling/extraction narratives, raising short-horizon whipsaw risk without a clean directional thesis."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-prior_state_unknown",
 "market": "lithium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "No explicit prior market_state was provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' as a safe default."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits the neutral band (|score| >= 20) with >=2 independent fresh (<=6h) corroborations aligned in the same direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio remains >=0.55 for 3+ consecutive buckets while fresh_evidence_count >=2."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh (<=2h) supply-shock OR demand-shock signal appears and shifts net_sentiment_score by >=15 points within 2 buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:40:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:40:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 14,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['lithium'].",
 "No explicit price/flow microstructure signal present in admitted corpus; direction derived from mixed demand-vs-supply thematic drivers, hence neutral_mixed.",
 "Timeseries built at signal-level using available newest_timestamp proxies (trend/vip/risk timestamps); not a de-duplicated per-record bucket model.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered: no fresh (<=2h) opposing hard invalidator present."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}