Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-driver_ambiguity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-23T13:40:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | Near-term lithium futures pressure is mixed because EV adoption/manufacturing expansion signals (demand-supportive) are being offset by recycling/extraction-technology and new-project narratives (supply/availability-supportive). | 63 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | Upside (bullish) impulse for lithium futures over the next 24h is capped unless demand-side signals arrive without simultaneous supply-side reinforcement, because the freshest cluster skews toward recycling/extraction capacity narratives. | 58 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260323T134000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T13:40:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures pressure is mixed because EV adoption/manufacturing expansion signals (demand-supportive) are being offset by recycling/extraction-technology and new-project narratives (supply/availability-supportive).",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption/scale-up headlines (OEMs and major EV players)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives",
"Battery recycling scaling narratives (secondary supply)",
"Lithium extraction technology / project development narratives (primary supply)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If EV demand narratives translate into immediate procurement tightness faster than supply additions"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside (bullish) impulse for lithium futures over the next 24h is capped unless demand-side signals arrive without simultaneous supply-side reinforcement, because the freshest cluster skews toward recycling/extraction capacity narratives.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh recycling/extraction-tech narratives concentrated in the most recent window",
"Ongoing policy/EV adoption headlines that are supportive but not uniquely lithium-tightening"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A discrete demand shock (e.g., procurement/stockpiling) appearing in the fresh window",
"A hard supply disruption signal entering within the last 6h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-001",
"B-lithium-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 158,
"B": 7,
"C": 40,
"D": 281,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate roll-up by summing per-trend tier counts; overlap across trends likely (double-count risk)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 7,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 6,
"stale_over_72h_signal_count": 0,
"note": "Counted at signal-level using newest_timestamp proxies per trend/VIP/risk record; not a de-duplicated record-level measure."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-driver_ambiguity",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Most admitted signals are directionally positive for the EV/battery ecosystem but have mixed first-order implications for lithium futures (demand-up vs supply/availability-up)."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Fresh cluster includes both demand-scale and supply/recycling/extraction narratives, raising short-horizon whipsaw risk without a clean directional thesis."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-prior_state_unknown",
"market": "lithium",
"severity": "low",
"description": "No explicit prior market_state was provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' as a safe default."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat until directional_score_signed exits the neutral band (|score| >= 20) with >=2 independent fresh (<=6h) corroborations aligned in the same direction."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction_ratio remains >=0.55 for 3+ consecutive buckets while fresh_evidence_count >=2."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if a fresh (<=2h) supply-shock OR demand-shock signal appears and shifts net_sentiment_score by >=15 points within 2 buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:40:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:40:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 14,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['lithium'].",
"No explicit price/flow microstructure signal present in admitted corpus; direction derived from mixed demand-vs-supply thematic drivers, hence neutral_mixed.",
"Timeseries built at signal-level using available newest_timestamp proxies (trend/vip/risk timestamps); not a de-duplicated per-record bucket model.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered: no fresh (<=2h) opposing hard invalidator present."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}