Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_drivers_supply_vs_demand
- generated_at: 2026-03-23T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-01 | Near-term lithium futures sentiment is modestly skewed upward as fresh EV policy/adoption and battery supply-chain buildout signals dominate the last-day attention window. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| lithium | B-LI-02 | Upside follow-through in lithium futures is likely to be capped by persistent supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency themes that remain present alongside demand-side positives. | 57 | flat | stable | 24h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_20260323_0700Z_lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is modestly skewed upward as fresh EV policy/adoption and battery supply-chain buildout signals dominate the last-day attention window.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / policy support narratives resurfacing in the most recent window",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion / supply-chain buildout coverage",
"Recycling / circular supply-chain narratives adding demand-support framing"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Evidence cluster includes supply-side expansion and extraction-technology improvements that can cap upside",
"Pockets of EV demand softness risk (headline-level) can quickly flip sentiment"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside follow-through in lithium futures is likely to be capped by persistent supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency themes that remain present alongside demand-side positives.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium extraction technology/process improvements",
"Mining operations expansion / project development coverage",
"Refining / capacity scaling themes (medium-term supply response)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If policy/demand signals intensify without matching near-term supply confirmation, upside pressure can broaden"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-01",
"B-LI-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 18,
"B": 2,
"C": 8,
"D": 34,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"0_6h": 0.34,
"6_24h": 0.26,
"24_72h": 0.2,
">72h": 0.2
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_drivers_supply_vs_demand",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-support (EV adoption/policy) and supply-expansion (extraction/mining/refining) themes are simultaneously active; net direction is positive but not clean."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting narratives span multiple weeks; fresh surge exists, but longer-span context can cause abrupt re-pricing of conviction."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Short-horizon lithium sentiment may flip quickly on EV demand headlines or supply project updates; treat as reversal-watch environment."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle maintains fresh (<=24h) multi-source EV demand/policy support without equally fresh supply-shock signals, keep a long-bias watch."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency signals accelerate (multiple independent records within <=6h) or EV demand weakness intensifies, shift to reversal-watch / volatility-watch."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"velocity_score": -1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
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"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
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"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
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"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No explicit per-record physics / timestamp distribution was provided to 6B; hourly timeseries is a conservative shape fit using available recency anchors (trend temporal profiles and newest evidence proxies).",
"Prior state memory not provided; state_change set using neutral baseline assumption."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}