Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: mixed_drivers_supply_vs_demand
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-01 Near-term lithium futures sentiment is modestly skewed upward as fresh EV policy/adoption and battery supply-chain buildout signals dominate the last-day attention window. 58 up accelerating 24h false 54
lithium B-LI-02 Upside follow-through in lithium futures is likely to be capped by persistent supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency themes that remain present alongside demand-side positives. 57 flat stable 24h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_20260323_0700Z_lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term lithium futures sentiment is modestly skewed upward as fresh EV policy/adoption and battery supply-chain buildout signals dominate the last-day attention window.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / policy support narratives resurfacing in the most recent window",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion / supply-chain buildout coverage",
 "Recycling / circular supply-chain narratives adding demand-support framing"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Evidence cluster includes supply-side expansion and extraction-technology improvements that can cap upside",
 "Pockets of EV demand softness risk (headline-level) can quickly flip sentiment"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside follow-through in lithium futures is likely to be capped by persistent supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency themes that remain present alongside demand-side positives.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction technology/process improvements",
 "Mining operations expansion / project development coverage",
 "Refining / capacity scaling themes (medium-term supply response)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If policy/demand signals intensify without matching near-term supply confirmation, upside pressure can broaden"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-01",
 "B-LI-02"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 34,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "0_6h": 0.34,
 "6_24h": 0.26,
 "24_72h": 0.2,
 ">72h": 0.2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mixed_drivers_supply_vs_demand",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-support (EV adoption/policy) and supply-expansion (extraction/mining/refining) themes are simultaneously active; net direction is positive but not clean."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives span multiple weeks; fresh surge exists, but longer-span context can cause abrupt re-pricing of conviction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Short-horizon lithium sentiment may flip quickly on EV demand headlines or supply project updates; treat as reversal-watch environment."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle maintains fresh (<=24h) multi-source EV demand/policy support without equally fresh supply-shock signals, keep a long-bias watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh supply-expansion/extraction-efficiency signals accelerate (multiple independent records within <=6h) or EV demand weakness intensifies, shift to reversal-watch / volatility-watch."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 34,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 14,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
 "No explicit per-record physics / timestamp distribution was provided to 6B; hourly timeseries is a conservative shape fit using available recency anchors (trend temporal profiles and newest evidence proxies).",
 "Prior state memory not provided; state_change set using neutral baseline assumption."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}