Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23T16:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/sideways than trend strongly over the next 24h because the admitted gold-linked signals are stale and thin. 58 mixed fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-002 Gold futures have only a slight upside bias over the next 6–24h from background geopolitical-risk salience, but the signal is not strong enough to assert a bullish state. 52 up fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/sideways than trend strongly over the next 24h because the admitted gold-linked signals are stale and thin.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity",
 "stale_signal_overhang"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures have only a slight upside bias over the next 6\u201324h from background geopolitical-risk salience, but the signal is not strong enough to assert a bullish state.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk (background)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 40,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 0,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 2
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fewer than the requested minimum evidence threshold (3) of gold-mapped, decision-grade signals; remaining signals are largely stale (>72h)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most admitted gold-linked items are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09, which is >14 days old versus the 2026-03-23 snapshot."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "High fragility implies sensitivity to any new USD/real-rates catalyst not present in the admitted set."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral_mixed while fresh (<=24h) gold-linked evidence count stays below threshold and freshness_confidence remains low."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if a fresh macro driver (real rates / USD strength) enters the corpus with multiple independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate if a <=2h opposing signal cluster appears that materially flips the net directional score signed beyond +/-20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as gold.",
 "Most trend signals in input are unmapped to gold (no gold/XAU/bullion alias hit) and therefore were not admitted for single-market gold state synthesis.",
 "Gold-mapped signals present were primarily VIP-style, low-density and stale (published 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), triggering stale suppression.",
 "Prior market state not provided (unknown_prior); state_change set conservatively to unchanged."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}