Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-GOLD-001 (data_sparsity, high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures direction is mixed over the next 6h–24h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-mapped evidence meeting the minimum threshold; most admitted gold-relevant items are stale and low-corroboration. 52 mixed fading 24h false 72
gold B-GOLD-002 Operational/traceability disruption narrative in parts of the physical gold trade exists in the corpus, but is currently single-source/low-authority and stale; it is not strong enough to drive a directional gold futures bias on its own. 45 flat fading 24h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260323T000000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold futures direction is mixed over the next 6h\u201324h because there is insufficient fresh, gold-mapped evidence meeting the minimum threshold; most admitted gold-relevant items are stale and low-corroboration.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "evidence_below_threshold", "stale_gold_specific_signals", "low_domain_diversity_in_gold_specific_inputs" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" }, { "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Operational/traceability disruption narrative in parts of the physical gold trade exists in the corpus, but is currently single-source/low-authority and stale; it is not strong enough to drive a directional gold futures bias on its own.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "flat", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "vip_singleton_signal", "echo_concentration_risk", "staleness_penalty_gt_72h" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 5, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-GOLD-001", "B-GOLD-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 0, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "mid_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-001", "market": "gold", "type": "data_sparsity", "severity": "high", "detail": "Gold-mapped admitted evidence count below configured minimum threshold (min_evidence_threshold=3)." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-002", "market": "gold", "type": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "high", "detail": "Most gold-specific items are >72h old; recency weighting heavily down-weights them, suppressing directional conviction." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-003", "market": "gold", "type": "echo_concentration", "severity": "medium", "detail": "At least one gold-specific VIP outlier is single-source with echo-risk flagged." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-GOLD-004", "market": "gold", "type": "indirect_driver_only", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Many strong corpus themes are geopolitical/macro but not explicitly gold-mapped by alias; treated as indirect and not counted as directional mass for gold." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral label-state while gold-mapped fresh evidence < 3 and freshness_confidence=low." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if fresh (<=6h) gold-specific signals appear from 2+ independent sources or if contradiction ratio rises with new opposing evidence." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing directional cluster (<=2h) emerges with 2+ independent records, activate late-breaking invalidation sentinel and reassess state_change." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": 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"acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, 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"conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to gold.", "No gold-mapped trends admitted via alias mapping; only low-corroboration VIP items referenced gold/GLD and are stale (>72h).", "State held neutral_mixed to satisfy require_directional_conviction + min_evidence_threshold constraints." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }