Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: trade_policy_event_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23 13:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Near-term copper pricing pressure is skewed upward as electrification/grid/EV demand themes remain active and inventory/tightness narratives persist in recent coverage. 63 up accelerating 24h false 45
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side downside relief is limited in the near term; large mine expansion signals appear long-dated, while disruption/constraint narratives remain more relevant to the current window. 60 up stable 24h false 45
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy and macro-policy headlines remain a volatility/reversal catalyst that could quickly reduce risk appetite for copper even without a fully formed opposing fundamental signal. 45 mixed stable 6h false 45

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-cis-copper-20260323T130000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures (HG)", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 45, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term copper pricing pressure is skewed upward as electrification/grid/EV demand themes remain active and inventory/tightness narratives persist in recent coverage.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand", "industrial_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Supply-side downside relief is limited in the near term; large mine expansion signals appear long-dated, while disruption/constraint narratives remain more relevant to the current window.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "inventory_exchange_stocks", "industrial_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-copper-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Trade-policy and macro-policy headlines remain a volatility/reversal catalyst that could quickly reduce risk appetite for copper even without a fully formed opposing fundamental signal.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-001", "B-copper-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 120, "B": 13, "C": 12, "D": 150, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "0_6h": 3, "6_24h": 4, "24_72h": 6, ">72h": 120 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-001", "market": "copper", "label": "trade_policy_event_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Policy/trade headlines are present as short-horizon volatility catalysts; could raise reversal probability despite currently low in-corpus counterevidence." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-002", "market": "copper", "label": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "detail": "Parts of the bullish thesis are long-duration (weeks+) thematic narratives; fresh confirmation exists but some support is background/persistent." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-003", "market": "copper", "label": "echo_risk_singleton_vips_present", "severity": "low", "detail": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source (echo-risk flagged) and should not be treated as primary directional drivers." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-004", "market": "copper", "label": "evidence_payload_truncation_in_message", "severity": "low", "detail": "Upstream delivery indicates truncation in-message; directional synthesis uses admitted trends/VIPs but some raw records may be omitted from this payload." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch while hourly directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence arrivals; downgrade if net score falls into [-20,+20].", "action_label": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if trade-policy headlines cluster or if contradiction ratio rises above ~0.30 within the next 6h.", "action_label": "volatility_watch" }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Switch to reversal-watch if 2+ independent bearish (downside) signals arrive within a 2h window or if directional score flips to <= -20.", "action_label": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Prefer staying flat if evidence flow stalls (fresh_evidence_count ~0 for multiple hours) and conviction drops below 55 while fragility rises above 60.", "action_label": "stay_flat" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": 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"fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:30:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 62, "bullish_pressure_score": 81, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 62, "velocity_score": 47, "acceleration_score": 47, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:30:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 23, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -8, "acceleration_score": -55, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 43, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No prior market state was provided to compute a directional transition; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior.", "Counterevidence within admitted corpus appears limited (contradiction arrays empty); reversal risk stays low unless fresh opposing signals arrive." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }