Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-policy-whipsaw (narrative_whipsaw, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1-copper-demand-electrification Near-term copper sentiment is supported by continued electrification/energy-transition demand narratives (grid modernisation + EV adoption themes), implying upward bias over the next 24 hours. 62 up stable 24h false 42
copper B2-copper-policy-trade-strategic Trade-policy / strategic-miner framing (US-linked and major-miner policy narratives) is adding incremental bullish pressure to copper sentiment, but is more volatility-prone than purely demand-led drivers. 58 up fading 6h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260323T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1-copper-demand-electrification", "market": "copper", "claim": "Near-term copper sentiment is supported by continued electrification/energy-transition demand narratives (grid modernisation + EV adoption themes), implying upward bias over the next 24 hours.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand", "industrial_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks (implied attention to exchange-linked references)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2-copper-policy-trade-strategic", "market": "copper", "claim": "Trade-policy / strategic-miner framing (US-linked and major-miner policy narratives) is adding incremental bullish pressure to copper sentiment, but is more volatility-prone than purely demand-led drivers.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy", "mine_supply_disruption (via permitting/regulatory/supply-chain pathways)" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "stable", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1-copper-demand-electrification", "B2-copper-policy-trade-strategic" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 55, "B": 6, "C": 3, "D": 76, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_signals": 3, "fresh_6_24h_signals": 2, "fresh_24_72h_signals": 0, "stale_over_72h_signals": 7 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-policy-whipsaw", "market": "copper", "label": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful share of supportive signals are policy/trade framed; these can flip quickly on headline risk even without strong counterevidence in the current corpus." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-slowburn-overhang", "market": "copper", "label": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "detail": "Several trends show multi-week evidence spans with slow velocity; supportive backdrop is present but can be less predictive for the 6h horizon." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-singleton-noise", "market": "copper", "label": "echo_concentration_pockets", "severity": "low", "detail": "A few VIP/risk items are single-source; treated as non-decisive and monitored only for recurrence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh corroboration appears (>=2 independent sources within the next 6h) without matching fresh counterevidence, bullish conviction can firm." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if trade-policy headlines accelerate (multiple updates within 2h) because direction may remain bullish but intraday swing risk rises." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Activate only if fresh opposing evidence emerges (>=2 independent bearish records within 2h) indicating demand deterioration, inventories build, or supply shock resolution." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If the next 6h window is evidence-sparse (no new corroboration) and directional score decays materially, maintain neutrality despite background bullish narrative." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 75, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 30, "acceleration_score": 30, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -33, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 33, "acceleration_score": 35, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 30, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 50, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -38, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.03, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown_prior context.", "No explicit bearish/counterevidence trends were present in the admitted corpus for the last 24h window; reversal risk kept low." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }