Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: mapping_inference_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23 16:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk is translating into tighter effective supply flow, skewing coffee futures pricing pressure upward. 58 up accelerating 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-002 Regulatory and compliance uncertainty is adding cost/constraint premium, modestly supportive of higher coffee futures but with ambiguous price-through. 54 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-003 Demand/competition narratives are present but not dominant; net effect is mixed and secondary versus supply/logistics drivers. 52 mixed fading 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260323T160500Z-coffee",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T16:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk is translating into tighter effective supply flow, skewing coffee futures pricing pressure upward.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "network/logistics disruption narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Regulatory and compliance uncertainty is adding cost/constraint premium, modestly supportive of higher coffee futures but with ambiguous price-through.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "regulation/compliance",
 "labour_costs",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand/competition narratives are present but not dominant; net effect is mixed and secondary versus supply/logistics drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "brand/competition signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002",
 "B-coffee-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 80,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 180,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 4,
 "signals_6_24h": 3,
 "signals_24_72h": 0,
 "signals_gt_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "mapping_inference_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Several high-volume signals are risk/logistics framed; price-direction is inferred primarily via supply-flow tightening logic rather than explicit 'price up' statements."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Logistics/geopolitical disruption narratives can resolve abruptly, creating quick sentiment reversals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_volatility",
 "level": "medium",
 "note": "Multiple fresh updates cluster in a few hours, consistent with bursty event cadence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) additional independent logistics/origin supply disruption confirmations without rise in counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of updates (>=2 distinct signals within 2h) tied to shipping lanes, freight capacity, or port/route restrictions."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation / resolution headlines that directly ease freight constraints or restore normal routing within the last 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow drops materially (0-6h window becomes empty) while existing thesis remains primarily background/persistent."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 3,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 19,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 19,
 "acceleration_score": 19,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 24,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 22,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 26,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -22,
 "acceleration_score": -48,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 16,
 "acceleration_score": 38,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -14,
 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 14,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope pinned explicitly to coffee.",
 "Directional call primarily derived from supply/logistics risk translating into upside price pressure; limited explicit counterevidence was present in the admitted corpus.",
 "No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed with unknown prior as baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}