Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mapping_inference_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-23 16:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk is translating into tighter effective supply flow, skewing coffee futures pricing pressure upward. | 58 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Regulatory and compliance uncertainty is adding cost/constraint premium, modestly supportive of higher coffee futures but with ambiguous price-through. | 54 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Demand/competition narratives are present but not dominant; net effect is mixed and secondary versus supply/logistics drivers. | 52 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260323T160500Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T16:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term logistics/shipping disruption risk is translating into tighter effective supply flow, skewing coffee futures pricing pressure upward.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"network/logistics disruption narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Regulatory and compliance uncertainty is adding cost/constraint premium, modestly supportive of higher coffee futures but with ambiguous price-through.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"regulation/compliance",
"labour_costs",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand/competition narratives are present but not dominant; net effect is mixed and secondary versus supply/logistics drivers.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"brand/competition signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 57,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 80,
"B": 7,
"C": 2,
"D": 180,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 4,
"signals_6_24h": 3,
"signals_24_72h": 0,
"signals_gt_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mapping_inference_risk",
"level": "medium",
"note": "Several high-volume signals are risk/logistics framed; price-direction is inferred primarily via supply-flow tightening logic rather than explicit 'price up' statements."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"level": "medium",
"note": "Logistics/geopolitical disruption narratives can resolve abruptly, creating quick sentiment reversals."
},
{
"flag": "event_driven_volatility",
"level": "medium",
"note": "Multiple fresh updates cluster in a few hours, consistent with bursty event cadence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) additional independent logistics/origin supply disruption confirmations without rise in counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any rapid sequence of updates (>=2 distinct signals within 2h) tied to shipping lanes, freight capacity, or port/route restrictions."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Credible de-escalation / resolution headlines that directly ease freight constraints or restore normal routing within the last 6h window."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence flow drops materially (0-6h window becomes empty) while existing thesis remains primarily background/persistent."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 3,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 19,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 19,
"acceleration_score": 19,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 24,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 26,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -22,
"acceleration_score": -48,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 16,
"acceleration_score": 38,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -14,
"acceleration_score": -30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 14,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope pinned explicitly to coffee.",
"Directional call primarily derived from supply/logistics risk translating into upside price pressure; limited explicit counterevidence was present in the admitted corpus.",
"No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed with unknown prior as baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}