Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: Geopolitical/logistics-driven thesis (can reverse quickly on de-escalation)
- generated_at: 2026-03-23T07:02:03Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-01 |
Near-term upside price pressure in coffee futures is supported by logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher friction in global commodity flows (freight, insurance, delays), tightening effective deliverable supply. |
63 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-02 |
Policy/regulatory headlines around coffee-linked trade and regulation are contributing more to volatility than to a clean directional move over the next 6–24 hours. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-03 |
Consumer/brand activity signals are mildly supportive of demand narrative but are unlikely to be the dominant 6–24 hour driver versus supply-chain friction and policy risk. |
52 |
flat |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-coffee-20260323T070203Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T07:02:03Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upside price pressure in coffee futures is supported by logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher friction in global commodity flows (freight, insurance, delays), tightening effective deliverable supply.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"origin_supply",
"geopolitical/logistics disruption spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Policy/regulatory headlines around coffee-linked trade and regulation are contributing more to volatility than to a clean directional move over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"regulation",
"trade policy",
"implementation-timeline uncertainty"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Consumer/brand activity signals are mildly supportive of demand narrative but are unlikely to be the dominant 6\u201324 hour driver versus supply-chain friction and policy risk.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"consumption trends",
"consumer product/brand cycle"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 47,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 22,
"B": 4,
"C": 1,
"D": 34,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"0_6h": 3,
"6_24h": 8,
"24_72h": 0,
"gt_72h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-geo_logistics",
"label": "Geopolitical/logistics-driven thesis (can reverse quickly on de-escalation)",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-policy_vol",
"label": "Policy/regulatory headline churn amplifies short-horizon volatility",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-timeseries_sparsity",
"label": "Per-record timestamps/physics stripped in gated input; intraday signal timeseries cannot be reliably bucketed",
"severity": "medium"
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-unknown_prior_state",
"label": "Prior market-state memory unavailable; state_change emitted as unchanged with unknown_prior context",
"severity": "low"
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption indicators persist and no material fresh counter-evidence appears within the next 6\u201312 hours."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory headlines continue to update rapidly (multiple independent sources) inside the next 24 hours."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If de-escalation / normalisation signals emerge that directly reduce shipping/freight friction or restore expected origin flow."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional evidence decays (no fresh confirmations) and the signal collapses back to mixed/neutral."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [],
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 0,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Directional mapping: negative-risk logistics headlines treated as potentially bullish for coffee prices via effective supply tightening (freight/insurance/delay).",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; counterevidence score treated as low.",
"Hourly signal_timeseries buckets not emitted because per-record timestamps/physics were stripped by the input gate; only current-state synthesis performed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}