Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: Geopolitical/logistics-driven thesis (can reverse quickly on de-escalation)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-23T07:02:03Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term upside price pressure in coffee futures is supported by logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher friction in global commodity flows (freight, insurance, delays), tightening effective deliverable supply. 63 up stable 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-02 Policy/regulatory headlines around coffee-linked trade and regulation are contributing more to volatility than to a clean directional move over the next 6–24 hours. 56 mixed stable 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-03 Consumer/brand activity signals are mildly supportive of demand narrative but are unlikely to be the dominant 6–24 hour driver versus supply-chain friction and policy risk. 52 flat fading 6h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-coffee-20260323T070203Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T07:02:03Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term upside price pressure in coffee futures is supported by logistics/shipping disruption risk and higher friction in global commodity flows (freight, insurance, delays), tightening effective deliverable supply.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply",
 "geopolitical/logistics disruption spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Policy/regulatory headlines around coffee-linked trade and regulation are contributing more to volatility than to a clean directional move over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "regulation",
 "trade policy",
 "implementation-timeline uncertainty"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Consumer/brand activity signals are mildly supportive of demand narrative but are unlikely to be the dominant 6\u201324 hour driver versus supply-chain friction and policy risk.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption trends",
 "consumer product/brand cycle"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 47,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 68,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 34,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "0_6h": 3,
 "6_24h": 8,
 "24_72h": 0,
 "gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-coffee-geo_logistics",
 "label": "Geopolitical/logistics-driven thesis (can reverse quickly on de-escalation)",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-coffee-policy_vol",
 "label": "Policy/regulatory headline churn amplifies short-horizon volatility",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-coffee-timeseries_sparsity",
 "label": "Per-record timestamps/physics stripped in gated input; intraday signal timeseries cannot be reliably bucketed",
 "severity": "medium"
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-coffee-unknown_prior_state",
 "label": "Prior market-state memory unavailable; state_change emitted as unchanged with unknown_prior context",
 "severity": "low"
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption indicators persist and no material fresh counter-evidence appears within the next 6\u201312 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If policy/regulatory headlines continue to update rapidly (multiple independent sources) inside the next 24 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation / normalisation signals emerge that directly reduce shipping/freight friction or restore expected origin flow."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional evidence decays (no fresh confirmations) and the signal collapses back to mixed/neutral."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 0,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Directional mapping: negative-risk logistics headlines treated as potentially bullish for coffee prices via effective supply tightening (freight/insurance/delay).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided in input; counterevidence score treated as low.",
 "Hourly signal_timeseries buckets not emitted because per-record timestamps/physics were stripped by the input gate; only current-state synthesis performed."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}