Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: crude_oil
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_geopolitics_volatility
- generated_at: 2026-03-23T15:01:48Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B-crude-001 | Near-term Brent crude pricing pressure is biased upward as geopolitical escalation/chokepoint-risk narratives dominate the last-24h evidence flow. | 65 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 63 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-002 | Supply-side disruption risk (refinery outages / operational interruptions) is adding a persistent risk premium supportive of Brent across the next 24h window. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
| crude_oil | B-crude-003 | Even with a bullish directional bias, the probability of sharp intraday whipsaws is elevated because several dominant drivers are 'spike-and-fade' geopolitics headlines rather than slow-moving fundamentals. | 70 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-crude_oil-20260323T150148Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-23T15:01:48Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Brent crude oil futures", "market_code": "crude_oil" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "crude_oil", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-crude-001", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Near-term Brent crude pricing pressure is biased upward as geopolitical escalation/chokepoint-risk narratives dominate the last-24h evidence flow.", "probability_pct": 65, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Iran-linked escalation / conflict risk", "Maritime security + chokepoint risk (Gulf/adjacent routes)", "US/IEA-linked escalation narratives" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-002", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Supply-side disruption risk (refinery outages / operational interruptions) is adding a persistent risk premium supportive of Brent across the next 24h window.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Saudi Aramco / refinery-outage narrative cluster", "Fuel supply interruption narratives tied to Iran ecosystem", "Operational disruption / outage spillover risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_band": "high" }, { "belief_id": "B-crude-003", "market": "crude_oil", "claim": "Even with a bullish directional bias, the probability of sharp intraday whipsaws is elevated because several dominant drivers are 'spike-and-fade' geopolitics headlines rather than slow-moving fundamentals.", "probability_pct": 70, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Headline-driven geopolitics (rapid update cadence)", "Narrative clustering (many correlated mentions)", "Mixed authority + long-tail domain amplification" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 88, "conviction_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_band": "high", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-crude-001", "B-crude-002", "B-crude-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 281, "B": 8, "C": 0, "D": 286, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 12, "fresh_6_24h_est": 11, "stale_over_24h_est": 1 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-geo-vol-001", "market": "crude_oil", "label": "headline_geopolitics_volatility", "severity": "high", "detail": "Dominant drivers are fast-moving geopolitical/maritime security narratives; elevated whipsaw risk despite bullish bias." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-spikefade-001", "market": "crude_oil", "label": "narrative_spike_and_fade_profile", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Multiple top trends show spike-and-fade temporal shapes; direction can persist but momentum can flip quickly on de-escalation." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-001", "market": "crude_oil", "label": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "low", "detail": "At least one major supply-disruption narrative cluster has an older anchor (>24h) still contributing to direction; monitor for lack of fresh confirmation." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-shadowstream-001", "market": "crude_oil", "label": "shadow_stream_seed_sparsity", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Some risk anomalies are seed-level / single-source; treat as context until corroborated (avoid over-weighting)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) escalation/disruption confirmations continue and no fresh counterevidence cluster emerges." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "high", "trigger_condition": "If chokepoint/security headlines accelerate (more independent sources inside 2-6h) or if official maritime advisories update." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/ceasefire/route-normalisation signals appear from 2+ independent high-trust sources inside <=2h." }, { "market": "crude_oil", "action": "hard_de_risk_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If a late-breaking hard invalidator appears (e.g., verified supply restoration + broad de-escalation) causing a sharp contradiction spike." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "crude_oil" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 5, "bullish_pressure_score": 5, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 5, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 28, "fragility_score_0_100": 74, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 25, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -5, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": -5, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 24, "fragility_score_0_100": 82, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -23, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 18, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 71, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 25, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 65, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 65, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 73, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 70, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 70, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 75, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 68, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 68, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 74, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 72, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 72, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 75, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 75, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 78, "bullish_pressure_score": 78, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 78, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 75, "bullish_pressure_score": 75, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 75, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 77, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 73, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 73, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 80, "bullish_pressure_score": 80, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 80, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 81, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-23T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-23T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 77, "bullish_pressure_score": 77, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 77, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 79, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 80, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -5, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=crude_oil.", "No explicit counter-direction (demand-weakness / inventory-build) trend cluster present in admitted set; reversal risk driven mainly by event-resolution risk, not opposing evidence.", "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided); state_change emitted as new_bullish against unknown prior baseline." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }