Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T04:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B1 Policy/energy-security tailwinds (US/EU nuclear policy and energy-security framing) are supportive of uranium demand expectations over the next 24h. 64 up stable 24h false 55
uranium B2 Nuclear innovation / SMR-related narrative intensity is contributing incremental bullish sentiment for uranium-linked complexes over the next 6–24h, but is headline-sensitive. 60 up accelerating 6h false 55
uranium B3 Geopolitical supply-risk narratives and fragmented/low-authority source mix can generate fast sentiment reversals, increasing two-sided risk even if the net bias remains bullish. 58 mixed stable 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "CIS-uranium-20260322T040000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Policy/energy-security tailwinds (US/EU nuclear policy and energy-security framing) are supportive of uranium demand expectations over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 64, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "nuclear_policy", "energy_security", "reactor_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Nuclear innovation / SMR-related narrative intensity is contributing incremental bullish sentiment for uranium-linked complexes over the next 6\u201324h, but is headline-sensitive.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "nuclear_innovation", "reactor_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B3" ] }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Geopolitical supply-risk narratives and fragmented/low-authority source mix can generate fast sentiment reversals, increasing two-sided risk even if the net bias remains bullish.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk", "uranium_supply_contracting" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Large share of the feed is policy/innovation narrative-driven; sentiment can flip quickly on single headlines." }, { "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "description": "Several major admitted trends show high low-authority share; confidence is capped despite broad coverage." }, { "flag": "intraday_data_sparsity", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "description": "Per-record timestamps were not provided to 6B; intraday bucket counts are conservative approximations from trend-level recency proxies." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if net directional score stays >= +20 and contradiction_ratio does not rise materially in the next 6h." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h) credible opposing catalyst appears and contradiction_ratio moves above ~0.25." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Treat as volatility watch if headline flow remains high while evidence trust remains mixed (authority dispersion stays wide)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 13, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 13, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 17, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 17, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 19, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 19, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.17, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 40, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 1, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.", "No explicit contradictions provided in 5B; reversal_risk raised to medium mainly due to headline sensitivity + authority-mix dispersion rather than direct opposing signals.", "Timeseries buckets are conservative and derived from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamp distributions)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }