Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity
- generated_at: 2026-03-22 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B1 |
Over the next 24h, silver sentiment skews upward on industrial-demand (solar/renewables) + supply/mining narrative reinforcement, despite macro-rate ambiguity. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
62 |
| silver |
B2 |
Over the next 6h, upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to rate/FX headlines; pullbacks are plausible without fresh confirmation. |
55 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260322T120000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment skews upward on industrial-demand (solar/renewables) + supply/mining narrative reinforcement, despite macro-rate ambiguity.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand (renewables/solar supply chain narrative)",
"mine_supply / producer-news reinforcement (silver miners / exploration)",
"precious-metals risk appetite spillover (safe-haven bid)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"macro: rate-expectations ambiguity / real-rates sensitivity",
"USD-strength risk (implicit via rates channel)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to rate/FX headlines; pullbacks are plausible without fresh confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"fresh reinforcement in macro/precious-metals discourse (rates expectations still active)",
"recent industrial/supply-chain framing supportive to silver usage narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fast headline-driven shifts in Fed path / real rates"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Rates-expectations signal is active but not cleanly directional; can flip silver quickly."
},
{
"risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Some supportive silver supply/mining narratives span >7d; treated as background unless re-confirmed."
},
{
"risk_flag": "data_quality_authority_mix",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"notes": "Authority mix contains substantial lower-tier share in several narratives; conviction capped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, higher-authority confirmation reinforces industrial-demand and/or supply-constraint narratives within the next 6\u201312h while contradiction remains low, maintain a watch_long_bias posture."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises sharply on rate/FX headlines (hawkish re-pricing / USD spike proxies), switch to reversal_watch."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If signals thin out (no fresh confirmation) and directional score mean-reverts toward neutral, stay_flat."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fast, opposing macro headline appears with age <= 2h and high authority (late-breaking), escalate to hard_de_risk_watch pending corroboration."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction handled via conservative ratio + macro ambiguity.",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table supplied); state_change set to 'unchanged' by unknown-prior fallback.",
"Stale suppression applied due to several narratives spanning >7d (treated as background support, not primary)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}