Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22 12:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B1 Over the next 24h, silver sentiment skews upward on industrial-demand (solar/renewables) + supply/mining narrative reinforcement, despite macro-rate ambiguity. 58 up accelerating 24h false 62
silver B2 Over the next 6h, upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to rate/FX headlines; pullbacks are plausible without fresh confirmation. 55 up stable 6h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260322T120000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver sentiment skews upward on industrial-demand (solar/renewables) + supply/mining narrative reinforcement, despite macro-rate ambiguity.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand (renewables/solar supply chain narrative)",
 "mine_supply / producer-news reinforcement (silver miners / exploration)",
 "precious-metals risk appetite spillover (safe-haven bid)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro: rate-expectations ambiguity / real-rates sensitivity",
 "USD-strength risk (implicit via rates channel)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to rate/FX headlines; pullbacks are plausible without fresh confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "fresh reinforcement in macro/precious-metals discourse (rates expectations still active)",
 "recent industrial/supply-chain framing supportive to silver usage narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fast headline-driven shifts in Fed path / real rates"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "macro_real_rates_usd_sensitivity",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Rates-expectations signal is active but not cleanly directional; can flip silver quickly."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Some supportive silver supply/mining narratives span >7d; treated as background unless re-confirmed."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_quality_authority_mix",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "notes": "Authority mix contains substantial lower-tier share in several narratives; conviction capped."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, higher-authority confirmation reinforces industrial-demand and/or supply-constraint narratives within the next 6\u201312h while contradiction remains low, maintain a watch_long_bias posture."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises sharply on rate/FX headlines (hawkish re-pricing / USD spike proxies), switch to reversal_watch."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals thin out (no fresh confirmation) and directional score mean-reverts toward neutral, stay_flat."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fast, opposing macro headline appears with age <= 2h and high authority (late-breaking), escalate to hard_de_risk_watch pending corroboration."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 9,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction handled via conservative ratio + macro ambiguity.",
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table supplied); state_change set to 'unchanged' by unknown-prior fallback.",
 "Stale suppression applied due to several narratives spanning >7d (treated as background support, not primary)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}