Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 4
- top_risk_flag: macro_rate_sensitivity (RF-SI-001, high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22 07:15 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Near-term silver sentiment is biased upward on combined precious-metals flow support and industrial demand narratives, despite macro-rate uncertainty. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Supply-side narratives (operational disruption + supply/exploration chatter) are supportive for silver pricing bias over the next 24h, but evidence quality is mixed and partly slow-burn. |
56 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
74 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
Macro policy expectations (Fed/real-rates/USD sensitivity) can quickly neutralise or reverse the bullish bias if rate expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens. |
54 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
74 |
| silver |
B-SI-004 |
Volatility risk is elevated because the dominant drivers are macro-sensitive and headline-reactive (policy + geopolitics), while several supportive signals are low-authority single-source items. |
63 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260322T071500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T07:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver sentiment is biased upward on combined precious-metals flow support and industrial demand narratives, despite macro-rate uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows (safe-haven tone bleeding from gold narratives)",
"industrial_demand (solar/renewables supply-chain focus as demand proxy)",
"mine_supply (operational disruption / supply risk themes)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Supply-side narratives (operational disruption + supply/exploration chatter) are supportive for silver pricing bias over the next 24h, but evidence quality is mixed and partly slow-burn.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply (disruption risk / constrained availability framing)",
"precious_metals_flows (allocation/ETF-flow style signals; low-authority singletons downweighted)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Macro policy expectations (Fed/real-rates/USD sensitivity) can quickly neutralise or reverse the bullish bias if rate expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength (risk of USD bid)",
"real_rates (risk of higher real yields)",
"policy messaging (Fed expectation narratives)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SI-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-004",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated because the dominant drivers are macro-sensitive and headline-reactive (policy + geopolitics), while several supportive signals are low-authority single-source items.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro headline sensitivity (Fed expectations)",
"geopolitical risk (conflict/inflation framing)",
"data quality risk (VIP singletons / uneven authority mix)"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-004"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "macro_rate_sensitivity",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Silver directional bias is highly sensitive to Fed/real-rate/USD expectation updates; reversal risk elevated if hawkish re-pricing emerges."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "data_quality_mixed_authority",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Supportive narratives include a meaningful low-authority share and multiple single-source VIP items; conviction capped and fragility raised."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Coexistence of bullish (safe-haven/industrial/supply) and macro-neutral/ambiguous policy narratives increases whipsaw probability."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF-SI-004",
"market": "silver",
"type": "late_surge_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Several contributing trends show late-surge / fresh-update characteristics, which typically correlate with short-horizon volatility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains >= +20 with stable/declining contradiction and additional fresh confirmations within the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any fresh (<=2h) opposing macro signal emerges (hawkish rate re-pricing / USD strength) and directional score falls back toward the neutral band (between -20 and +20)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises or fresh evidence becomes sparse while the market remains bullish (fragility stays >= 70)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains in neutral band (-20 to +20) for multiple hours and conviction drops below 45."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 9,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to 'silver' from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction ratio estimated conservatively from mixed authority + singleton VIP prevalence.",
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}