- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas price pressure skews upward as geopolitical and LNG-infrastructure disruption narratives add a risk premium to supply expectations. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Even if the near-term bias is up, the move is headline-driven and prone to fast fade; intraday reversal risk is elevated versus a fundamentals-led trend. |
57 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
74 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B:natural_gas:2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas price pressure skews upward as geopolitical and LNG-infrastructure disruption narratives add a risk premium to supply expectations.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Even if the near-term bias is up, the move is headline-driven and prone to fast fade; intraday reversal risk is elevated versus a fundamentals-led trend.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 13,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 10,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 2,
"signals_6_24h": 2,
"signals_24_72h": 8,
"signals_gt_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical / infrastructure-disruption headlines with spike-and-fade characteristics; price reaction can mean-revert quickly."
},
{
"flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
"market": "natural_gas",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Admitted corpus is dominated by geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives; limited direct signal coverage for seasonal weather demand, storage balances, and production trends within this batch."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration continues around LNG outages / escalation headlines without comparable opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If follow-up headlines broaden (multiple independent sources) or de-escalation headlines appear, increasing two-way risk."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation or outage-resolution signals arrive and directional score falls below +20 on the hourly series."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 9,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"No explicit counterevidence/contradiction objects were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is driven by event/headline fragility rather than opposing evidence.",
"State_change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral baseline for state machine (therefore new_bullish)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}