Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_whipsaw_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term risk premium remains biased upward for natural gas futures as geopolitical/infrastructure disruption narratives around LNG supply chains persist. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 66 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Directional conviction is capped because the admitted drivers are predominantly geopolitical-risk narratives (high whipsaw potential) rather than fresh weather/storage/production fundamentals. | 67 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 66 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium remains biased upward for natural gas futures as geopolitical/infrastructure disruption narratives around LNG supply chains persist.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / shipping-risk narrative intensity (Iran / Gulf / Israel-linked headlines)",
"LNG infrastructure disruption narrative clustering (Ras Laffan / QatarEnergy)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of corroborated, concrete outage/flow disruption in the latest feed (risk-premium may fade)",
"Single-source counter-signals (low corroboration) implying de-escalation/offsets"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Directional conviction is capped because the admitted drivers are predominantly geopolitical-risk narratives (high whipsaw potential) rather than fresh weather/storage/production fundamentals.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Evidence mix skewed to geopolitical headlines vs. core NG fundamentals in this cycle",
"Some signals are sustained but several are spike-and-fade, indicating unstable narrative cadence"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If follow-through reporting confirms actual LNG feedgas/export interruptions, conviction could rise"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical-risk narratives (fast reversal potential on de-escalation headlines)."
},
{
"flag": "fundamentals_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Limited explicit, fresh signals in this batch for seasonal weather demand, storage prints, or US production relative to geopolitics."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several admitted clusters show a meaningful low-authority share and/or singleton VIP outliers; directional conviction capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional corroborated reporting of LNG facility disruption / shipping constraint OR acceleration in the same-direction cluster within the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "High-authority de-escalation headline burst (<=2h) coinciding with a sharp drop in fresh risk-anomaly mentions."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Sustained geopolitical cluster remains top-ranked while evidence stays predominantly narrative-driven rather than confirmed outages."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Signal mix collapses to sparse/singleton items with no sustained trend reinforcement over 12\u201324 hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 40,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit in flight_plan).",
"Contradictions feed empty in this cycle; reversal risk driven by narrative fragility rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
"Prior market-state memory not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' (unknown prior baseline)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}