Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk premium remains elevated in natural gas as geopolitical/LNG infrastructure disruption narratives stay active, supporting upward pressure. 62 up accelerating 24h false 72
natural_gas B-NG-002 Headline-driven volatility likely to stay elevated (gap-risk on escalation/de-escalation headlines), even if net direction remains upward-biased. 70 mixed stable 6h false 72
natural_gas B-NG-003 If no additional disruption confirmation appears, current risk premium can fade quickly (mean-reversion pullback risk). 35 down fading 24h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260322T063000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk premium remains elevated in natural gas as geopolitical/LNG infrastructure disruption narratives stay active (Qatar/Ras Laffan, Iran-linked escalation risk), supporting upward price pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "export_lng",
 "production_outages",
 "pipeline_flows",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Headline-driven volatility is likely to stay elevated (gap-risk on escalation/de-escalation headlines), even if net direction remains upward-biased.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_headline_risk",
 "infrastructure_disruption_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "If no additional disruption confirmation appears, the current risk premium can fade quickly (mean-reversion pullback risk).",
 "probability_pct": 35,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lack_of_followthrough",
 "risk_premium_decay"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-NG-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Signal set dominated by geopolitical/infrastructure headlines; direction is bullish but fragile to sudden de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_present_low_grade",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Some opposing/unclear VIP-lane items exist but are thinly corroborated; increases reversal risk without flipping the base case."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_granularity_limit",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "6B synthesis uses trend-level timestamps/temporal profiles; per-record physics fields were not available in the provided input."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a watch-long bias while disruption narratives remain active and fresh evidence continues within the last 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: treat additional LNG infrastructure/shipping disruption headlines as a potential intraday impulse driver."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch: if escalation headlines fade for >24h and no new disruption confirmation appears, risk-premium decay becomes the dominant move."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat if contradiction rises materially (multiple fresh opposing signals within <=6h) without a clear dominant driver."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Directional interpretation treats disruption/supply-risk headlines as price-up (bullish) pressure for natural gas futures.",
 "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; momentum/reversal heuristics derived from recency and temporal_profile fields."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}