Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term risk premium remains elevated in natural gas as geopolitical/LNG infrastructure disruption narratives stay active, supporting upward pressure. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
72 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Headline-driven volatility likely to stay elevated (gap-risk on escalation/de-escalation headlines), even if net direction remains upward-biased. |
70 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
72 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
If no additional disruption confirmation appears, current risk premium can fade quickly (mean-reversion pullback risk). |
35 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-natural_gas-20260322T063000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk premium remains elevated in natural gas as geopolitical/LNG infrastructure disruption narratives stay active (Qatar/Ras Laffan, Iran-linked escalation risk), supporting upward price pressure.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Headline-driven volatility is likely to stay elevated (gap-risk on escalation/de-escalation headlines), even if net direction remains upward-biased.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_headline_risk",
"infrastructure_disruption_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": []
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "If no additional disruption confirmation appears, the current risk premium can fade quickly (mean-reversion pullback risk).",
"probability_pct": 35,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lack_of_followthrough",
"risk_premium_decay"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Signal set dominated by geopolitical/infrastructure headlines; direction is bullish but fragile to sudden de-escalation."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_present_low_grade",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Some opposing/unclear VIP-lane items exist but are thinly corroborated; increases reversal risk without flipping the base case."
},
{
"flag": "data_granularity_limit",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "6B synthesis uses trend-level timestamps/temporal profiles; per-record physics fields were not available in the provided input."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain a watch-long bias while disruption narratives remain active and fresh evidence continues within the last 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: treat additional LNG infrastructure/shipping disruption headlines as a potential intraday impulse driver."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch: if escalation headlines fade for >24h and no new disruption confirmation appears, risk-premium decay becomes the dominant move."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat if contradiction rises materially (multiple fresh opposing signals within <=6h) without a clear dominant driver."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to natural_gas from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
"Directional interpretation treats disruption/supply-risk headlines as price-up (bullish) pressure for natural gas futures.",
"No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided; momentum/reversal heuristics derived from recency and temporal_profile fields."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}