Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T13:34:57Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-01 Lithium futures show a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate recent updates. 60 up accelerating 24h false 55
lithium B-lithium-02 Upside in lithium futures is capped and pullback risk persists due to supply-side expansion/extraction headlines, recycling substitution narrative, and regulatory/political headline risk that could soften near-term demand expectations. 49 down stable 24h false 55
lithium B-lithium-03 Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is likely choppy (two-sided flow) despite a net-positive bias. 57 mixed stable 6h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-lithium-20260322T133457Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T13:34:57Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures show a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate recent updates.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / electrification demand narrative",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals",
 "Policy/regulatory updates interpreted as supportive for EV/battery buildout"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-02"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-02",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Upside in lithium futures is capped and pullback risk persists due to supply-side expansion/extraction headlines, recycling substitution narrative, and regulatory/political headline risk that could soften near-term demand expectations.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction / supply expansion narrative",
 "Battery recycling / substitution pressure narrative",
 "Regulatory/political uncertainty headline risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-03",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is likely choppy (two-sided flow) despite a net-positive bias.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and bearish supply/recycling signals",
 "Moderate contradiction in the most recent update window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-01",
 "B-lithium-02",
 "B-lithium-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 134,
 "B": 17,
 "C": 49,
 "D": 302,
 "U": 0,
 "method_note": "Summed from admitted trend/vip bundles without record-level de-duplication."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 4,
 "signals_6_24h": 6,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0,
 "method_note": "Bucketed by each admitted trend's newest_timestamp proxy."
 },
 "diagnostic_scores": {
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 26,
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "contradiction_ratio_estimate_0_to_1": 0.45
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "contradiction_elevated",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Meaningful two-sided pressure (demand-growth vs supply/recycling/political-risk narratives) in the last 24h proxy window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Recent bullish and bearish updates arrive in the same day; conviction is positive but fragile."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Many admitted signals show multi-day evidence spans; near-term direction relies on the latest update timestamps as proxies."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) demand-side confirmations arrive without matching fresh supply/recycling negatives, directional score likely sustains > +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If mixed updates persist (bullish and bearish signals both printing inside the same 6h window), expect higher whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence intensifies (2+ independent bearish updates within 2h), reassess for a bullish-to-neutral transition."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 3.1,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3.1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:34:57Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:34:57Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6.7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 6.7,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6.7,
 "velocity_score": 6.7,
 "acceleration_score": 6.7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": -6.7,
 "acceleration_score": -13.4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 6.7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11.8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19.8,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.6,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11.8,
 "velocity_score": -11.8,
 "acceleration_score": -11.8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -31.1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.1,
 "net_sentiment_score": -31.1,
 "velocity_score": -19.3,
 "acceleration_score": -7.5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39.6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39.6,
 "velocity_score": 70.7,
 "acceleration_score": 90.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": -39.6,
 "acceleration_score": -110.3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39.6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39.6,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39.6,
 "velocity_score": 39.6,
 "acceleration_score": 79.2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": -39.6,
 "acceleration_score": -79.2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 39.6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0.0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
 "velocity_score": 0.0,
 "acceleration_score": 0.0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:34:57Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:34:57Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31.5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77.3,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45.8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31.5,
 "velocity_score": 31.5,
 "acceleration_score": 31.5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 39.6,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -31.1,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 31.5,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No v2 per-record physics fields were provided in the gated payload; directional/conviction/fragility derived from admitted trend metadata, authority-tier mix, and newest_timestamp proxies.",
 "Signal timeseries buckets are constructed from trend-level newest_timestamp proxies (not full per-record timestamp distributions); treat bucket values as shape indicators rather than precise evidence counts.",
 "State_change assumes an implicit prior of neutral due to missing explicit prior-state memory."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}