Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_elevated (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T13:34:57Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-01 | Lithium futures show a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate recent updates. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-lithium-02 | Upside in lithium futures is capped and pullback risk persists due to supply-side expansion/extraction headlines, recycling substitution narrative, and regulatory/political headline risk that could soften near-term demand expectations. | 49 | down | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| lithium | B-lithium-03 | Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is likely choppy (two-sided flow) despite a net-positive bias. | 57 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-lithium-20260322T133457Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T13:34:57Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures show a mild upside bias over the next 24h as EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives dominate recent updates.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / electrification demand narrative",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals",
"Policy/regulatory updates interpreted as supportive for EV/battery buildout"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Upside in lithium futures is capped and pullback risk persists due to supply-side expansion/extraction headlines, recycling substitution narrative, and regulatory/political headline risk that could soften near-term demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium extraction / supply expansion narrative",
"Battery recycling / substitution pressure narrative",
"Regulatory/political uncertainty headline risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures sentiment is likely choppy (two-sided flow) despite a net-positive bias.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and bearish supply/recycling signals",
"Moderate contradiction in the most recent update window"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-01",
"B-lithium-02",
"B-lithium-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 134,
"B": 17,
"C": 49,
"D": 302,
"U": 0,
"method_note": "Summed from admitted trend/vip bundles without record-level de-duplication."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 4,
"signals_6_24h": 6,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_gt_72h": 0,
"method_note": "Bucketed by each admitted trend's newest_timestamp proxy."
},
"diagnostic_scores": {
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 26,
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 46,
"contradiction_ratio_estimate_0_to_1": 0.45
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "contradiction_elevated",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Meaningful two-sided pressure (demand-growth vs supply/recycling/political-risk narratives) in the last 24h proxy window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Recent bullish and bearish updates arrive in the same day; conviction is positive but fragile."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Many admitted signals show multi-day evidence spans; near-term direction relies on the latest update timestamps as proxies."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) demand-side confirmations arrive without matching fresh supply/recycling negatives, directional score likely sustains > +20."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If mixed updates persist (bullish and bearish signals both printing inside the same 6h window), expect higher whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence intensifies (2+ independent bearish updates within 2h), reassess for a bullish-to-neutral transition."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 3.1,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3.1,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 1.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6.7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 6.7,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 6.7,
"velocity_score": 6.7,
"acceleration_score": 6.7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": -6.7,
"acceleration_score": -13.4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 6.7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11.8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19.8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.6,
"net_sentiment_score": -11.8,
"velocity_score": -11.8,
"acceleration_score": -11.8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.63,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": -31.1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.1,
"net_sentiment_score": -31.1,
"velocity_score": -19.3,
"acceleration_score": -7.5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39.6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39.6,
"velocity_score": 70.7,
"acceleration_score": 90.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": -39.6,
"acceleration_score": -110.3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39.6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39.6,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 39.6,
"velocity_score": 39.6,
"acceleration_score": 79.2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": -39.6,
"acceleration_score": -79.2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 39.6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0.0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0.0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0.0,
"velocity_score": 0.0,
"acceleration_score": 0.0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:34:57Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:34:57Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31.5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77.3,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45.8,
"net_sentiment_score": 31.5,
"velocity_score": 31.5,
"acceleration_score": 31.5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.59,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 39.6,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -31.1,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 31.5,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No v2 per-record physics fields were provided in the gated payload; directional/conviction/fragility derived from admitted trend metadata, authority-tier mix, and newest_timestamp proxies.",
"Signal timeseries buckets are constructed from trend-level newest_timestamp proxies (not full per-record timestamp distributions); treat bucket values as shape indicators rather than precise evidence counts.",
"State_change assumes an implicit prior of neutral due to missing explicit prior-state memory."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}