Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T07:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-6H-001 Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound (flat-to-slight-up) than to trend strongly, as broad EV/battery expansion demand signals are partially offset by fresh policy/regulatory uncertainty. 54 mixed fading 6h true 82
lithium B-LI-24H-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures show a mild upward bias but with elevated fragility, because the dominant flow of evidence is pro-demand/pro-capacity yet the latest policy signal increases downside tail risk. 56 up stable 24h true 82

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260322T070000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound (flat-to-slight-up) than to trend strongly, as broad EV/battery expansion demand signals are partially offset by fresh policy/regulatory uncertainty.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / demand narrative (BYD, OEM electrification themes)",
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (Tesla/CATL themes)",
 "Lithium supply-chain investment / extraction themes (Albemarle / Chile supply context)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh political/regulatory risk headline cluster (US policy uncertainty proxy)",
 "Substitution/recycling narrative overhang (battery recycling and alternative chemistries reducing marginal lithium intensity risk)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures show a mild upward bias but with elevated fragility, because the dominant flow of evidence is pro-demand/pro-capacity yet the latest policy signal increases downside tail risk.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained EV adoption + infrastructure themes supporting battery demand",
 "Ongoing capacity expansion narratives reinforcing medium-term materials demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Late-breaking regulatory/political uncertainty increasing reversal risk",
 "Stale/indirect evidence dominance (thematic, not price-linked)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-6H-001",
 "B-LI-24H-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A large share of supportive themes are persistent/slow-burn and not tightly linked to near-term futures pricing."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "indirect_driver_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most admitted signals are second-order (EV adoption, battery capacity, recycling, policy) rather than direct lithium market tightness/spot pricing."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Very recent opposing policy/regulatory-risk signal arrived inside the last ~2h window and caps directional conviction pending corroboration."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Net bullish pressure remains positive, but contradiction ratio is rising into the latest buckets, increasing reversal risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "flag": "data_authority_mix_low_tier_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-authority share; treat as supportive context rather than decisive near-term driver."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while thesis_kill_switch=true and directional_state=neutral_mixed."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if fresh policy/regulatory risk signals persist and net sentiment drops below -20 signed score."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Watch for volatility expansion if contradiction_ratio remains >0.30 with falling directional_score over multiple buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if directional_score_signed re-accelerates above +25 with contradiction_ratio stabilising."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 24,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 23,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
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 "velocity_score": -5,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 88,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": true,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 29,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 30,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47.5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 84,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 88,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 20,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 13,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
 "Admitted evidence is predominantly thematic (EV demand, battery capacity, recycling, policy) rather than direct lithium market balance/price prints.",
 "Late-breaking negative policy/regulatory-risk cluster increased contradiction and triggered thesis_kill_switch, capping conviction and elevating reversal risk."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}