Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T07:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-6H-001 | Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound (flat-to-slight-up) than to trend strongly, as broad EV/battery expansion demand signals are partially offset by fresh policy/regulatory uncertainty. | 54 | mixed | fading | 6h | true | 82 |
| lithium | B-LI-24H-001 | Over the next 24h, lithium futures show a mild upward bias but with elevated fragility, because the dominant flow of evidence is pro-demand/pro-capacity yet the latest policy signal increases downside tail risk. | 56 | up | stable | 24h | true | 82 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-LITHIUM-20260322T070000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-6H-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6h, lithium futures are more likely to be rangebound (flat-to-slight-up) than to trend strongly, as broad EV/battery expansion demand signals are partially offset by fresh policy/regulatory uncertainty.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / demand narrative (BYD, OEM electrification themes)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narrative (Tesla/CATL themes)",
"Lithium supply-chain investment / extraction themes (Albemarle / Chile supply context)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh political/regulatory risk headline cluster (US policy uncertainty proxy)",
"Substitution/recycling narrative overhang (battery recycling and alternative chemistries reducing marginal lithium intensity risk)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-24H-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures show a mild upward bias but with elevated fragility, because the dominant flow of evidence is pro-demand/pro-capacity yet the latest policy signal increases downside tail risk.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained EV adoption + infrastructure themes supporting battery demand",
"Ongoing capacity expansion narratives reinforcing medium-term materials demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Late-breaking regulatory/political uncertainty increasing reversal risk",
"Stale/indirect evidence dominance (thematic, not price-linked)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "invalidated_stale",
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-6H-001",
"B-LI-24H-001"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A large share of supportive themes are persistent/slow-burn and not tightly linked to near-term futures pricing."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "indirect_driver_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most admitted signals are second-order (EV adoption, battery capacity, recycling, policy) rather than direct lithium market tightness/spot pricing."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Very recent opposing policy/regulatory-risk signal arrived inside the last ~2h window and caps directional conviction pending corroboration."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Net bullish pressure remains positive, but contradiction ratio is rising into the latest buckets, increasing reversal risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "data_authority_mix_low_tier_share",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Evidence bundles show meaningful low-authority share; treat as supportive context rather than decisive near-term driver."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while thesis_kill_switch=true and directional_state=neutral_mixed."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if fresh policy/regulatory risk signals persist and net sentiment drops below -20 signed score."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Watch for volatility expansion if contradiction_ratio remains >0.30 with falling directional_score over multiple buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if directional_score_signed re-accelerates above +25 with contradiction_ratio stabilising."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"lithium"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 48.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31.5,
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"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 28.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 52.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27.5,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 26.5,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
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"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": true,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
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"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
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"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55.5,
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"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47.5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32.5,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 84,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 88,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 20,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 13,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as lithium.",
"Admitted evidence is predominantly thematic (EV demand, battery capacity, recycling, policy) rather than direct lithium market balance/price prints.",
"Late-breaking negative policy/regulatory-risk cluster increased contradiction and triggered thesis_kill_switch, capping conviction and elevating reversal risk."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}