Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T05:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW | Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be flat-to-down than to extend higher, as very recent high-authority supply/recycling-related headlines dilute the otherwise supportive EV/battery-demand backdrop. | 55 | down | accelerating | 6h | true | 78 |
| lithium | B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND | Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound regime than to trend cleanly, due to simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals. | 52 | mixed | stable | 24h | true | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_lithium_2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be flat-to-down than to extend higher, as very recent high-authority supply/recycling-related headlines dilute the otherwise supportive EV/battery-demand backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh recycling/secondary supply narrative pressure (very recent)",
"Fresh producer/extraction expansion narrative pressure (very recent)",
"Offsetting EV adoption + battery capacity expansion demand signals (fresh but contradicted)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"T-004",
"T-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound regime than to trend cleanly, due to simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion (demand-supportive)",
"Recycling + extraction expansion narratives (price-headwind risk)",
"Policy/regulation signals adding uncertainty/whipsaw risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"T-067",
"T-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "invalidated_stale",
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW",
"B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Very recent, high-authority opposing signals appeared within ~2 hours of snapshot time, capping conviction and forcing neutralisation."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals are simultaneously present."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Supportive EV/battery expansion narratives are partly medium/long-horizon; near-term price inference is fragile."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple adjacent drivers (EV demand, recycling, extraction, policy) are active with mixed directional implications."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "stay_flat while kill-switch is active and directional score remains between -20 and +20."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if the next 1\u20132 hours add incremental bearish evidence without matching bullish confirmation (net score crosses below -20)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction ratio stays elevated (>0.5) across multiple consecutive buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "watch_short_bias only if fresh bearish drivers persist and bullish EV/battery expansion signals fade (falling bullish pressure + rising bearish pressure)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"lithium"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 20,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No explicit per-record physics/trend_state_memory provided; momentum/reversal inferred from recency + contradiction mix at trend/VIP level.",
"Timeseries buckets are conservative and derived by projecting each admitted signal using available recency proxies (e.g., evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp) rather than full tick-level evidence distribution.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel engaged due to very recent, high-authority opposing drivers; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}