Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T05:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be flat-to-down than to extend higher, as very recent high-authority supply/recycling-related headlines dilute the otherwise supportive EV/battery-demand backdrop. 55 down accelerating 6h true 78
lithium B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound regime than to trend cleanly, due to simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals. 52 mixed stable 24h true 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_lithium_2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures are more likely to be flat-to-down than to extend higher, as very recent high-authority supply/recycling-related headlines dilute the otherwise supportive EV/battery-demand backdrop.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh recycling/secondary supply narrative pressure (very recent)",
 "Fresh producer/extraction expansion narrative pressure (very recent)",
 "Offsetting EV adoption + battery capacity expansion demand signals (fresh but contradicted)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "T-004",
 "T-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures are more likely to trade in a mixed/rangebound regime than to trend cleanly, due to simultaneous fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption + battery manufacturing expansion (demand-supportive)",
 "Recycling + extraction expansion narratives (price-headwind risk)",
 "Policy/regulation signals adding uncertainty/whipsaw risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "T-067",
 "T-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B_LI_6H_DOWNSIDE_SKEW",
 "B_LI_24H_RANGEBOUND"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Very recent, high-authority opposing signals appeared within ~2 hours of snapshot time, capping conviction and forcing neutralisation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Fresh bullish demand signals and fresh bearish supply/substitution signals are simultaneously present."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Supportive EV/battery expansion narratives are partly medium/long-horizon; near-term price inference is fragile."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Multiple adjacent drivers (EV demand, recycling, extraction, policy) are active with mixed directional implications."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "stay_flat while kill-switch is active and directional score remains between -20 and +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if the next 1\u20132 hours add incremental bearish evidence without matching bullish confirmation (net score crosses below -20)."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if contradiction ratio stays elevated (>0.5) across multiple consecutive buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "watch_short_bias only if fresh bearish drivers persist and bullish EV/battery expansion signals fade (falling bullish pressure + rising bearish pressure)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 27,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 20,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
 "No explicit per-record physics/trend_state_memory provided; momentum/reversal inferred from recency + contradiction mix at trend/VIP level.",
 "Timeseries buckets are conservative and derived by projecting each admitted signal using available recency proxies (e.g., evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp) rather than full tick-level evidence distribution.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel engaged due to very recent, high-authority opposing drivers; conviction capped and fragility elevated."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}