Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-data-sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T16:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-gold-01 |
Gold futures near-term direction is neutral/mixed because there is insufficient fresh, gold-mapped evidence to support a directional call. |
62 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
76 |
| gold |
B-gold-02 |
Gold futures conviction remains low over the next 24h as current inputs are dominated by single-source / low-diversity gold-related items and lack corroborated fresh follow-through. |
60 |
flat |
fading |
24h |
false |
76 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_20260322T160000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-01",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures near-term direction is neutral/mixed because there is insufficient fresh, gold-mapped evidence to support a directional call.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_gold-mapped_signals",
"stale_signal_overhang_from_older_gold-related_items"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-gold-02",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures conviction remains low over the next 24h as current inputs are dominated by single-source / low-diversity gold-related items and lack corroborated fresh follow-through.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"single_source_concentration_risk_in_gold-specific_items",
"lack_of_fresh_correlated_macro_inputs_in_feed (real_rates/usd/etf_flows not directly evidenced)"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-gold-01",
"B-gold-02"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 0,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 2,
"unknown_age": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-data-sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"description": "Gold-mapped evidence below minimum threshold; suppressing directional call (neutral/mixed)."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-stale-context-overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Most gold-related items are older than 72h; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-echo-risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Gold-specific items show low domain diversity / single-source concentration risk."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat while gold-mapped fresh evidence count remains < 3 OR freshness_confidence remains low."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Volatility watch if a fresh multi-source gold catalyst appears (e.g., corroborated ETF flow / real-rates impulse / USD shock / verified geopolitical escalation impacting safe-haven demand)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if a fresh, opposing macro impulse is detected (e.g., sharp real-rate rise + USD strength) with 2+ independent confirming records inside 6h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
}
}