Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: gold
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22 08:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-001 |
Geopolitical-risk headlines provide residual safe-haven support for gold, but the supporting evidence in this batch is mostly stale and not accelerating; near-term direction is mixed rather than cleanly bullish. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
71 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-002 |
Rates/real-yield narrative remains a plausible headwind for gold, but the macro-policy evidence in this batch is not fresh enough to carry strong directional weight. |
44 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
71 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260322-0800Z-gold",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk headlines provide residual safe-haven support for gold, but the supporting evidence in this batch is mostly stale and not accelerating; near-term direction is mixed rather than cleanly bullish.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk",
"central_bank_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Rates/real-yield narrative remains a plausible headwind for gold, but the macro-policy evidence in this batch is not fresh enough to carry strong directional weight.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-001"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"note": "Most admitted supportive geopolitics/macro-policy items are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old versus snapshot), so directional conviction is capped."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Limited fresh, gold-specific confirmation across real-rates/USD/ETF-flows/physical-demand arenas in the most recent window."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Safe-haven geopolitics can re-accelerate quickly; current signal is fragile because the latest window contains little corroborated evidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance while directional score remains between -20 and +20 and freshness_confidence remains low."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate attention if a fresh (<=6h), high-authority geopolitics or central-bank/rates catalyst appears and pushes directional_score_signed beyond +/-20."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh macro-rate shock signal appears that contradicts safe-haven support (contradiction spike + accelerating opposing pressure), treat as reversal-risk."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a long-bias watch only if fresh geopolitical escalation signals are corroborated by multiple high-authority sources within <=6h."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Consider a short-bias watch only if fresh real-rates/USD-strength evidence arrives with high authority and consistent reinforcement across sources."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 8,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly: gold (single-market).",
"Directional signals for gold are dominated by >72h-old geopolitics/macro-policy narratives (2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so stale suppression applied and conviction capped.",
"A fresh (<=2h) seed-level risk anomaly exists in the last 24h window (2026-03-22T07:17:05Z) but is thin/uncorroborated; treated as low-weight volatility/risk pressure, not a strong directional driver."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}