Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:45:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures have mild upside tail-risk support from geopolitical-risk overhang, but the signal is mostly stale and not accelerating. 52 up fading 24h false 67
gold B-GOLD-002 Near-term direction is mixed/flat because the last-24h evidence density is very low, increasing noise risk versus signal. 58 flat stable 6h false 67

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260322-064500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures have mild upside tail-risk support from geopolitical-risk overhang, but the signal is mostly stale and not accelerating.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitics",
 "risk_sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of fresh corroborated drivers inside the last 72h",
 "Rates/USD drivers not present in this feed (data sparsity)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Near-term direction is mixed/flat because the last-24h evidence density is very low, increasing noise risk versus signal.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength",
 "risk_sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A small fresh risk-anomaly seed appeared (unconfirmed), which could tilt sentiment if corroborated"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Most geopolitics-linked evidence in the input is dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09 (>72h old vs snapshot), so directional conviction is capped and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_last_24h",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Very limited last-24h, gold-mapped evidence; increases fragility and reduces freshness confidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_single_source_vip",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Gold-specific VIP signals in the input are largely single-source and/or older (e.g., trade/traceability disruption item), so they are treated as weak background context."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay in neutral watch mode unless fresh (<=24h), multi-source confirmation emerges in real_rates/usd_strength or direct gold flow data."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevate monitoring if any high-authority geopolitics escalation updates arrive (<=6h) or if contradiction begins rising across arenas."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposite-direction macro drivers appear (e.g., strong USD / rising real rates signals), treat as potential short-horizon reversal pressure."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Only consider a long-bias watch if fresh, high-authority risk-off escalation signals cluster within <=6h with improving evidence density."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 5,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 8,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 8,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 8,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Primary target market resolved explicitly to gold.",
 "Directional evidence affecting gold is dominated by geopolitical/risk items published 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; treated as background and heavily downweighted (>72h).",
 "A single fresh risk-anomaly seed exists on 2026-03-22T06:34:47Z but is not corroborated (seed-level); included as a small, fragile uptick in the last hourly bucket.",
 "No high-trust, <=2h opposing signal detected; late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}