Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Net newsflow drivers (energy transition, grid modernisation, EV adoption) remain demand-supportive for copper over the next 24h, sustaining an upside bias even if spot responsiveness is muted. 62 up stable 24h false 46
copper B-copper-002 Policy and trade themes around strategic minerals support a mild risk-premium bid (upside skew) in copper-linked narratives over the next 6–24h, but with whipsaw sensitivity to headlines. 58 up fading 6h false 46
copper B-copper-003 Mine/project and permitting narratives (Americas-focused) keep supply-side uncertainty tilted to the upside (supportive), but most supporting evidence is not ultra-fresh, limiting near-term momentum confidence. 55 up fading 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_20260322T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Net newsflow drivers (energy transition, grid modernisation, EV adoption) remain demand-supportive for copper over the next 24h, sustaining an upside bias even if spot responsiveness is muted.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks (indirect via LME/COMEX attention in corpus)", "industrial_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Policy and trade themes around strategic minerals support a mild risk-premium bid (upside skew) in copper-linked narratives over the next 6\u201324h, but with whipsaw sensitivity to headlines.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-003", "market": "copper", "claim": "Mine/project and permitting narratives (Americas-focused) keep supply-side uncertainty tilted to the upside (supportive), but most supporting evidence is not ultra-fresh, limiting near-term momentum confidence.", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply_disruption", "trade_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 57, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-001", "B-copper-002", "B-copper-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 20, "B": 4, "C": 2, "D": 26, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 3, "stale_24_72h": 2, "stale_72h_plus": 3 }, "regime_state": "loosening" } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Directional bias is supported by broad thematic evidence, but much of it spans >7 days; near-term price responsiveness may lag narrative strength." }, { "flag": "policy_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Trade/strategic-minerals policy narratives can swing rapidly on discrete headlines; increases reversal risk despite limited in-corpus counterevidence." }, { "flag": "intraday_freshness_sparsity", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Within the last ~6 hours, the admitted corpus shows limited ultra-fresh incremental evidence, lowering momentum confidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while bullish directional mass remains >= +20 signed and no fresh opposing cluster emerges within a 2h window." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "volatility_watch if trade-policy headlines increase contradiction ratio materially (e.g., >0.20) or if directional score drops into neutral band (|score| < 20)." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "reversal_watch if 2+ independent opposing records arrive within 2h and net directional score crosses below +20 (bullish \u2192 neutral)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 20, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 13, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 7, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit opposing (bearish) evidence objects were present in admitted trends/VIP/risk sets; reversal_risk set to medium primarily due to momentum fade + policy-whipsaw sensitivity, not due to observed counterevidence mass.", "Prior market state was not provided to 6B; state_change emitted as new_bullish for this snapshot (unknown_prior).", "Timeseries values are conservative and derived from trend-level recency proxies (not full per-record timestamp distributions)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }