Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: authority_mix_skew_low (severity: medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-6h-001 | Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6h, supported by fresh demand-side narrative pressure (energy transition / grid / EV) with limited explicit bearish counter-evidence in the admitted feed. | 60 | up | stable | 6h | false | 52 |
| copper | B-copper-24h-001 | Copper futures bias higher over the next 24h, with conviction capped due to narrative-heavy evidence and elevated single-source/low-authority share across parts of the feed. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260322T060000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 52, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures bias modestly higher over the next 6h, supported by fresh demand-side narrative pressure (energy transition / grid / EV) with limited explicit bearish counter-evidence in the admitted feed.", "probability_pct": 60, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand (T-007, T-035)", "electric_vehicle_adoption narrative (T-036)", "miner/project activity focus (T-004, T-011)", "policy/trade narrative as volatility driver (T-017, T-012, T-045, T-002)" ], "contradicted_by": [] }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures bias higher over the next 24h, with conviction capped due to narrative-heavy evidence and elevated single-source/low-authority share across parts of the feed.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "late-surge demand narratives (T-036, T-007, T-035)", "Chile / producer complex context (T-013, T-004)", "trade-policy headline sensitivity (T-017, T-012, T-045)" ], "contradicted_by": [] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-6h-001", "B-copper-24h-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low", "severity": "medium", "market": "copper", "details": "Multiple admitted themes show a meaningful low-authority share; conviction capped despite broadly positive sentiment." }, { "flag": "echo_risk_singletons_present", "severity": "low", "market": "copper", "details": "VIP/risk lanes include single-source items (echo-risk flagged); treated as low-weight context only." }, { "flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "market": "copper", "details": "Trade-policy related themes can flip quickly and introduce volatility even when baseline demand narrative is supportive." }, { "flag": "prior_state_unknown", "severity": "low", "market": "copper", "details": "No prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with unknown prior." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence continues within the next 6h without material contradiction spike, maintain bullish watch bias." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If trade-policy narratives (tariffs/export controls) accelerate or broaden in high-authority sources, expect higher volatility." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a high-authority opposing macro/industrial-demand signal appears within a 2h window and contradiction rises materially, treat as potential reversal-warning." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "If fresh evidence count collapses and only stale background narratives remain, directional conviction should be treated as insufficient." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 48, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 2, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No explicit contradictions provided in input; reversal sentinel not triggered.", "State-change comparison degraded: no prior state memory was provided." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }