Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-6h-001 Copper futures are more likely than not to trade higher over the next 6 hours as pro-demand narratives (EV adoption / grid modernisation / energy transition) dominate. 58 up accelerating 6h false 57
copper B-copper-24h-001 Copper futures have a modest bullish bias over the next 24 hours, but conviction is capped because much of the support is thematic/background rather than a single decisive, universally corroborated catalyst. 62 up stable 24h false 57
copper B-copper-24h-hedge-001 Downside/reversal risk remains non-trivial if a fresh macro/policy counter-signal emerges (USD-strength impulse, China tightening, or trade-policy shock), because current bullish support is partly narrative-driven. 35 down stable 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260322T060000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures are more likely than not to trade higher over the next 6 hours as fresh pro-demand narratives (EV adoption / grid modernisation / energy transition) dominate the latest signal set.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "electric vehicle adoption (demand narrative)", "electric grid modernisation / renewable buildout (demand narrative)", "large miner / project policy headlines (supply-policy sensitivity)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "unexpected USD strength shock", "negative China-policy / growth surprise", "rapid easing of supply constraints / labour risks" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures have a modest bullish bias over the next 24 hours, but conviction is capped because much of the support is thematic/background rather than a single decisive, universally corroborated catalyst.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "sustained energy-transition demand framing (grid, renewables, EVs)", "policy/trade narratives affecting strategic-mineral positioning" ], "contradicted_by": [ "policy headline reversal (trade restrictions / exemptions)", "macro risk-off impulse", "fresh negative inventory / industrial-demand datapoint" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-hedge-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Downside/reversal risk remains non-trivial if a fresh macro/policy counter-signal emerges (USD-strength impulse, China tightening, or trade-policy shock), because current bullish support is partly narrative-driven.", "probability_pct": 35, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "USD strength sensitivity", "China policy sensitivity", "trade policy uncertainty" ], "contradicted_by": [ "additional fresh, high-authority pro-demand confirmation", "clear supply-tightness confirmation within the signal set" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-6h-001", "B-copper-24h-001", "B-copper-24h-hedge-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful portion of supportive evidence is older than 72 hours (background narratives), so it is downweighted versus the freshest updates." }, { "flag": "policy_trade_headline_sensitivity", "market": "copper", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Multiple admitted items are policy/trade-linked; headline risk can flip short-horizon direction even without gradual trend changes." }, { "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_in_vip_lane", "market": "copper", "severity": "low", "detail": "Some VIP/outlier items are single-source; treated as background-only and increases fragility slightly." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive signals persist through the next update cycle with no high-authority counter-signal (especially USD/China-policy related)." }, { "action_label": "reversal_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=6h) opposing macro/policy signal appears and contradiction starts rising versus the prior cycle." }, { "action_label": "volatility_watch", "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If policy/trade narratives accelerate (multiple new high-authority updates) within a short window." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": 18, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -16, "acceleration_score": -34, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": 21, "acceleration_score": 20, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -18, "acceleration_score": -39, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 27, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 5, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 30, "acceleration_score": 29, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 9, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 30, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 5, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as copper; single-market synthesis enforced.", "No explicit contradiction objects provided; contradiction_ratio held low and treated as uncertainty-only.", "Signal timeseries built from trend-level newest timestamps available in input (no per-record timestamp distribution provided in this baton).", "Prior market state not provided; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' under unknown-prior fallback." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }