Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-001 (data_authority_mix_low)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T08:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-001 Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward due to recurring supply-chain/logistics risk and export/trade-policy uncertainty affecting major origins. 60 up accelerating 24h false 65
coffee B-coffee-002 6h horizon is more mixed: upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to any rapid de-escalation/clarification in logistics or trade-policy headlines. 55 mixed stable 6h false 65

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260322T080000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward due to recurring supply-chain/logistics risk and export/trade-policy uncertainty affecting major origins.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight: elevated disruption narrative (container/shipping lanes, trade flow friction)",
 "origin_supply / policy: Brazil/Vietnam-linked stakeholder references and trade-policy uncertainty",
 "crop_conditions_disease (proxy): origin risk framing (VICOFA/coffee org risk narratives) despite mixed authority mix"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of explicit coffee-specific crop-loss confirmation in the freshest window",
 "High reliance on cross-commodity/geopolitical logistics proxies (non-coffee-specific)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "6h horizon is more mixed: upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to any rapid de-escalation/clarification in logistics or trade-policy headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "freshness clustering around a small number of update timestamps",
 "legal/policy seed anomalies (low-confidence) increasing uncertainty rather than clear direction"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If logistics disruption narrative cools quickly, bullish impulse can fade without new coffee-specific supply shock"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-001",
 "B-coffee-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "data_authority_mix_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted narratives include a meaningful low-authority share and several singleton VIP-style signals; directional inference relies on proxies."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "macro_proxy_dependency",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A large portion of the bullish impulse is inferred from broad logistics/geopolitical trade-flow disruption narratives rather than direct coffee crop-loss evidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Logistics/trade-policy narratives can flip quickly; reversal risk elevated if de-escalation headlines appear."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-004",
 "market": "coffee",
 "type": "late_breaking_seed_anomalies_low_confidence",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Very recent risk anomalies (legal/policy) appear as seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; treat as uncertainty amplifier, not directional."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If logistics/trade disruption narrative continues to refresh in the next 6\u201312h without credible counter-signal."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority updates explicitly indicate de-escalation/normalisation of key shipping lanes or immediate policy clarification reducing export friction."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high but evidence quality stays mixed (singleton / proxy-heavy), implying swing-risk without durable direction."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed signals rise sharply while fresh evidence density drops (signal sparsity + narrative churn)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 26,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 29,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 27,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 31,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 19,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 24,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -36,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "Directional inference interprets negative logistics/policy narratives as supply-tightening (price-positive) for coffee; evidence remains proxy-heavy.",
 "Prior state unavailable; state_change derived under neutral-prior assumption -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}