Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF-coffee-001 (data_authority_mix_low)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward due to recurring supply-chain/logistics risk and export/trade-policy uncertainty affecting major origins. | 60 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 65 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | 6h horizon is more mixed: upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to any rapid de-escalation/clarification in logistics or trade-policy headlines. | 55 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 65 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260322T080000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term coffee futures pricing remains biased upward due to recurring supply-chain/logistics risk and export/trade-policy uncertainty affecting major origins.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight: elevated disruption narrative (container/shipping lanes, trade flow friction)",
"origin_supply / policy: Brazil/Vietnam-linked stakeholder references and trade-policy uncertainty",
"crop_conditions_disease (proxy): origin risk framing (VICOFA/coffee org risk narratives) despite mixed authority mix"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of explicit coffee-specific crop-loss confirmation in the freshest window",
"High reliance on cross-commodity/geopolitical logistics proxies (non-coffee-specific)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "6h horizon is more mixed: upside bias persists but is fragile and sensitive to any rapid de-escalation/clarification in logistics or trade-policy headlines.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"freshness clustering around a small number of update timestamps",
"legal/policy seed anomalies (low-confidence) increasing uncertainty rather than clear direction"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If logistics disruption narrative cools quickly, bullish impulse can fade without new coffee-specific supply shock"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "data_authority_mix_low",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted narratives include a meaningful low-authority share and several singleton VIP-style signals; directional inference relies on proxies."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "macro_proxy_dependency",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "A large portion of the bullish impulse is inferred from broad logistics/geopolitical trade-flow disruption narratives rather than direct coffee crop-loss evidence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Logistics/trade-policy narratives can flip quickly; reversal risk elevated if de-escalation headlines appear."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-004",
"market": "coffee",
"type": "late_breaking_seed_anomalies_low_confidence",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Very recent risk anomalies (legal/policy) appear as seed-level with unmaterialised evidence; treat as uncertainty amplifier, not directional."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If logistics/trade disruption narrative continues to refresh in the next 6\u201312h without credible counter-signal."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, high-authority updates explicitly indicate de-escalation/normalisation of key shipping lanes or immediate policy clarification reducing export friction."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high but evidence quality stays mixed (singleton / proxy-heavy), implying swing-risk without durable direction."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction/mixed signals rise sharply while fresh evidence density drops (signal sparsity + narrative churn)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 26,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 29,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 27,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 31,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 24,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -36,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 44,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"Directional inference interprets negative logistics/policy narratives as supply-tightening (price-positive) for coffee; evidence remains proxy-heavy.",
"Prior state unavailable; state_change derived under neutral-prior assumption -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}