Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: momentum_fading_last_6h
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T16:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-01-6h | Coffee futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, driven mainly by supply-chain/logistics friction and policy/regulatory uncertainty rather than clear demand acceleration. | 61 | up | fading | 6h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-02-24h | Coffee futures are more likely than not to remain bid/volatile over the next 24 hours as policy + logistics narratives stay active, but the directional edge is not clean (headline-driven). | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260322T161000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T16:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01-6h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, driven mainly by supply-chain/logistics friction and policy/regulatory uncertainty rather than clear demand acceleration.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Regulatory/policy uncertainty around coffee-related rules/trade policy",
"Logistics/freight disruption risk (shipping chokepoints / freight constraints) supporting near-term risk premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If near-term policy headlines clarify as supply-supportive (lower friction) or logistics risks de-escalate quickly, the risk-premium thesis weakens"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02-24h",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures are more likely than not to remain bid/volatile over the next 24 hours as policy + logistics narratives stay active, but the directional edge is not clean (headline-driven).",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Brazil-related trade policy narrative flow",
"Coffee regulation narrative flow",
"Freight/shipping disruption narrative flow"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Materially fresh evidence of improved origin supply / smoother export flows would reduce the upward bias",
"Demand-softening or substitution narratives would increase counterevidence"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01-6h",
"B-coffee-02-24h"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 70,
"B": 6,
"C": 1,
"D": 165,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 5,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 1,
"stale_24_72h_signal_count": 0,
"stale_72h_plus_signal_count": 0
},
"directional_score_signed": 28
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "momentum_fading_last_6h",
"severity": "medium",
"why": "Directional score remains bullish but has softened from earlier intraday peak; most incremental updates add uncertainty/volatility more than directional reinforcement."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "policy_headline_sensitivity",
"severity": "medium",
"why": "Regulation/trade-policy narratives can flip direction quickly; current edge is headline-driven rather than structural proof of tighter physical supply."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "logistics_risk_premium_instability",
"severity": "medium",
"why": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives can de-escalate rapidly, reducing the embedded risk premium without strong counterevidence needing to appear first."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh logistics/policy updates remain net supply-tightening; downgrade if fresh updates reduce friction or show improved export flow."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Elevated probability of sharp moves around policy/regulatory headlines and freight/shipping disruption updates."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh signals within a short window indicate easing logistics constraints or supply improvement, treat as a rapid conviction fade/reversal risk increase."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"acceleration_score": 44,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -52,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 6,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market synthesis only.",
"Directional mapping from narrative risk/policy/logistics themes to price direction is inherently less direct than price-linked evidence; conviction capped accordingly.",
"No explicit contradictory coffee-price-down thesis detected in admitted set; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to headline sensitivity and momentum fade."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}