Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: momentum_fading_last_6h
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T16:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01-6h Coffee futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, driven mainly by supply-chain/logistics friction and policy/regulatory uncertainty rather than clear demand acceleration. 61 up fading 6h false 58
coffee B-coffee-02-24h Coffee futures are more likely than not to remain bid/volatile over the next 24 hours as policy + logistics narratives stay active, but the directional edge is not clean (headline-driven). 58 up stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260322T161000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T16:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01-6h",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures have a modest upward bias over the next 6 hours, driven mainly by supply-chain/logistics friction and policy/regulatory uncertainty rather than clear demand acceleration.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Regulatory/policy uncertainty around coffee-related rules/trade policy",
 "Logistics/freight disruption risk (shipping chokepoints / freight constraints) supporting near-term risk premium"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If near-term policy headlines clarify as supply-supportive (lower friction) or logistics risks de-escalate quickly, the risk-premium thesis weakens"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02-24h",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures are more likely than not to remain bid/volatile over the next 24 hours as policy + logistics narratives stay active, but the directional edge is not clean (headline-driven).",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Brazil-related trade policy narrative flow",
 "Coffee regulation narrative flow",
 "Freight/shipping disruption narrative flow"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Materially fresh evidence of improved origin supply / smoother export flows would reduce the upward bias",
 "Demand-softening or substitution narratives would increase counterevidence"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01-6h",
 "B-coffee-02-24h"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 70,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 165,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 5,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 1,
 "stale_24_72h_signal_count": 0,
 "stale_72h_plus_signal_count": 0
 },
 "directional_score_signed": 28
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "momentum_fading_last_6h",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Directional score remains bullish but has softened from earlier intraday peak; most incremental updates add uncertainty/volatility more than directional reinforcement."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "policy_headline_sensitivity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Regulation/trade-policy narratives can flip direction quickly; current edge is headline-driven rather than structural proof of tighter physical supply."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "label": "logistics_risk_premium_instability",
 "severity": "medium",
 "why": "Shipping/freight disruption narratives can de-escalate rapidly, reducing the embedded risk premium without strong counterevidence needing to appear first."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh logistics/policy updates remain net supply-tightening; downgrade if fresh updates reduce friction or show improved export flow."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevated probability of sharp moves around policy/regulatory headlines and freight/shipping disruption updates."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh signals within a short window indicate easing logistics constraints or supply improvement, treat as a rapid conviction fade/reversal risk increase."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 22,
 "acceleration_score": 22,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 34,
 "acceleration_score": 44,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -52,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -26,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 18,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to coffee; single-market synthesis only.",
 "Directional mapping from narrative risk/policy/logistics themes to price direction is inherently less direct than price-linked evidence; conviction capped accordingly.",
 "No explicit contradictory coffee-price-down thesis detected in admitted set; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to headline sensitivity and momentum fade."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}