Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: operational_event_risk (severity=high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:00:41Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| crude_oil | B1 | Near-term crude prices retain an upside risk-premium due to elevated Middle East maritime/security escalation narratives (Hormuz / Iran-linked). | 66 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B2 | Supply-side disruption risk remains the dominant narrative driver over the next 24h, keeping crude sentiment biased upward even if price chops intraday. | 61 | up | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| crude_oil | B3 | Counter-pressure is present from signals interpreted as supply easing / inventory comfort / macro demand caution; this can cap follow-through and raises reversal risk if escalation headlines fade. | 48 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260322T060041Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:41Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude prices retain an upside risk-premium due to elevated Middle East maritime/security escalation narratives (Hormuz / Iran-linked).",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"T-009 Strait of Hormuz: maritime chokepoints",
"T-001 Iran: geopolitical conflict",
"T-014 Iranian parliament: maritime route management",
"T-015 Iran's Revolutionary Guards: geopolitical tension",
"T-004 US Central Command: military escalation",
"T-010 International Energy Agency: maritime security"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption risk remains the dominant narrative driver over the next 24h, keeping crude sentiment biased upward even if price chops intraday.",
"probability_pct": 61,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-048 Kuwait: geopolitical conflict",
"T-049 QatarEnergy: geopolitical conflict",
"RA-002 Lloyd's List: maritime trade",
"RA-004 Gulf energy: refinery outages",
"VIP-001 Vlada: fuel supply disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Counter-pressure is present from signals interpreted as supply easing / inventory comfort / macro demand caution; this can cap follow-through and raises reversal risk if escalation headlines fade.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"T-028 US Energy Department: supply",
"T-033 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: physical crude inventories and market indicators",
"RA-001 FOMC: macroeconomic policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Geopolitics-led upside bias can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines; opposing supply/macro narratives exist but are not dominant."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Mix of escalation/disruption (bullish) versus supply/macro caution (bearish/mixed) increases reversal susceptibility despite net bullish pressure."
},
{
"flag": "data_authority_mix",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Several high-heat themes include a meaningful low-authority share; keep conviction capped below high until corroboration persists."
},
{
"flag": "operational_event_risk",
"market": "crude_oil",
"severity": "high",
"rationale": "Shipping chokepoints/refinery-outage style items imply jump-risk and gap-risk conditions."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration of Hormuz/Iran shipping disruption appears while contradiction ratio stays <=0.33, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (multiple fresh updates per hour) or operational outage signals expand, keep volatility_watch active."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation/supply-easing signals emerge within <=2h and directional score drops below +20, shift to reversal_watch / stay_flat labels."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 88,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 32,
"acceleration_score": 24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 32,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"target_resolution_source=explicit (flight_plan.target_market_code)",
"No per-trend physics fields provided; used legacy approximations from recency/heat/labels to derive signed pressure.",
"No explicit contradictions array supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from mixed driver set (supply/macro vs disruption/geopolitics).",
"Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}