Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: operational_event_risk (severity=high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-22T06:00:41Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Near-term crude prices retain an upside risk-premium due to elevated Middle East maritime/security escalation narratives (Hormuz / Iran-linked). 66 up accelerating 6h false 62
crude_oil B2 Supply-side disruption risk remains the dominant narrative driver over the next 24h, keeping crude sentiment biased upward even if price chops intraday. 61 up stable 24h false 62
crude_oil B3 Counter-pressure is present from signals interpreted as supply easing / inventory comfort / macro demand caution; this can cap follow-through and raises reversal risk if escalation headlines fade. 48 mixed accelerating 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260322T060041Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:41Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude prices retain an upside risk-premium due to elevated Middle East maritime/security escalation narratives (Hormuz / Iran-linked).",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-009 Strait of Hormuz: maritime chokepoints",
 "T-001 Iran: geopolitical conflict",
 "T-014 Iranian parliament: maritime route management",
 "T-015 Iran's Revolutionary Guards: geopolitical tension",
 "T-004 US Central Command: military escalation",
 "T-010 International Energy Agency: maritime security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption risk remains the dominant narrative driver over the next 24h, keeping crude sentiment biased upward even if price chops intraday.",
 "probability_pct": 61,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-048 Kuwait: geopolitical conflict",
 "T-049 QatarEnergy: geopolitical conflict",
 "RA-002 Lloyd's List: maritime trade",
 "RA-004 Gulf energy: refinery outages",
 "VIP-001 Vlada: fuel supply disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Counter-pressure is present from signals interpreted as supply easing / inventory comfort / macro demand caution; this can cap follow-through and raises reversal risk if escalation headlines fade.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "T-028 US Energy Department: supply",
 "T-033 US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: physical crude inventories and market indicators",
 "RA-001 FOMC: macroeconomic policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Geopolitics-led upside bias can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines; opposing supply/macro narratives exist but are not dominant."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Mix of escalation/disruption (bullish) versus supply/macro caution (bearish/mixed) increases reversal susceptibility despite net bullish pressure."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_authority_mix",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Several high-heat themes include a meaningful low-authority share; keep conviction capped below high until corroboration persists."
 },
 {
 "flag": "operational_event_risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "high",
 "rationale": "Shipping chokepoints/refinery-outage style items imply jump-risk and gap-risk conditions."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) corroboration of Hormuz/Iran shipping disruption appears while contradiction ratio stays <=0.33, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence increases (multiple fresh updates per hour) or operational outage signals expand, keep volatility_watch active."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh de-escalation/supply-easing signals emerge within <=2h and directional score drops below +20, shift to reversal_watch / stay_flat labels."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 32,
 "acceleration_score": 24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-22T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-22T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -40,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 32,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "target_resolution_source=explicit (flight_plan.target_market_code)",
 "No per-trend physics fields provided; used legacy approximations from recency/heat/labels to derive signed pressure.",
 "No explicit contradictions array supplied; contradiction_ratio inferred from mixed driver set (supply/macro vs disruption/geopolitics).",
 "Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change emitted as new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}