Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: policy_headline_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-6H-001 | Near-term uranium sentiment is biased upward as fresh energy-security / nuclear-policy headlines intensify attention on nuclear fuel supply chains. | 57 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 58 |
| uranium | B-UR-24H-001 | Over the next 24 hours, uranium remains supported by the same policy-driven narrative, but the signal is fragile and prone to headline whipsaw rather than a clean one-way continuation. | 54 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-uranium-20260321T123000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:30:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-6H-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is biased upward as fresh energy-security / nuclear-policy headlines intensify attention on nuclear fuel supply chains.", "probability_pct": 57, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Late-surge policy/energy-security narrative (notably Orano-linked energy-security context) with very recent timestamps", "Ongoing EU/national nuclear policy visibility (European Commission / von der Leyen related coverage)", "Persistent discussion of nuclear fuel supply-chain geopolitics (Westinghouse / Rosatom / broader fuel-cycle references)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Limited direct, high-specificity physical uranium spot/supply-disruption evidence in the admitted set", "Several micro-cap exploration signals are single-source and low-authority (echo-risk)" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-24H-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, uranium remains supported by the same policy-driven narrative, but the signal is fragile and prone to headline whipsaw rather than a clean one-way continuation.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Broad, cross-actor nuclear policy reinforcement (EU + US regulatory/technology narratives)", "Mining/producer background (Kazatomprom + uranium developers) acting as persistent context" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Policy-heavy drivers can reverse quickly on new statements, timelines, or regulatory pushback", "Evidence pool mixes high-authority and low-authority sources, increasing narrative noise risk" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-6H-001", "B-UR-24H-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Primary drivers are policy/energy-security narratives; these can flip quickly with new guidance, votes, or statements." }, { "risk_flag": "evidence_authority_mixed", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "rationale": "Admitted context contains a blend of high-authority and lower-tier/single-source items, increasing noise and fragility." }, { "risk_flag": "single_source_echo_risk_in_microcap_supply_signals", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Several exploration/developer signals are singleton sources; treat as weak confirmation and more useful as watchlist pings." }, { "risk_flag": "background_stale_context_overhang", "market": "uranium", "severity": "low", "rationale": "Multiple slow-burn nuclear themes span >7 days; they support the macro thesis but add persistence risk if fresh confirmation slows." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Directional score stays >= +20 with at least one additional high-authority, fresh (<=24h) confirmation of nuclear-policy or fuel-cycle tightening." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "A fresh (<=6h), high-authority opposing policy signal appears (e.g., delay/cancellation language, regulatory pushback) and contradiction ratio rises materially." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Directional score changes by >= 25 points within 2\u20134 hours (headline-driven spike / fade pattern)." }, { "market": "uranium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Directional score falls into (-20, +20) range for >= 4 consecutive hourly buckets (signal loses edge / becomes mixed)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 13, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 16, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 41, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -6, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.15, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 35, "bearish_pressure_score": 14, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.16, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 39, "bearish_pressure_score": 15, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 31, "acceleration_score": 28, "contradiction_ratio": 0.18, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 31, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 3, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "No per-trend v2 physics fields were provided; momentum/recency inferred from timestamps (published/newest) and temporal_profile hints.", "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior).", "Unmapped/low-confidence geopolitical VIP item(s) were treated as non-directional risk context rather than a directional uranium driver." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }