Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SILVER-001
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T19:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-6H-001 Over the next 6h, silver futures bias is mildly upward as safe-haven + geopolitical risk supports precious metals, with incremental support from silver-specific narrative (mining/ETF/industrial-demand mentions). 56 up accelerating 6h false 63
silver B-SILVER-24H-001 Over the next 24h, silver futures likely trades with a positive-to-mixed tilt; upside depends on continued risk-off demand and no sharp hawkish rate repricing. 54 mixed stable 24h false 63
silver B-SILVER-RISK-001 Reversal risk is elevated-to-moderate because the bullish impulse is partly macro-driven and sensitive to short-notice changes in rate expectations / USD. 62 mixed stable 24h false 63

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260321T190000Z-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-6H-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6h, silver futures bias is mildly upward as safe-haven + geopolitical risk supports precious metals, with incremental support from silver-specific narrative (mining/ETF/industrial-demand mentions).", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows: safe-haven bid spillover from gold narratives", "macro/geopolitical: elevated risk tone (US-Iran / related inflation-risk framing)", "industrial_demand: recent singleton mentions of industrial demand support (low corroboration)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "usd_strength: potential USD firmness headwind", "real_rates: rate-expectations ambiguity can pressure non-yielding metals", "data_quality: high low-authority share in parts of the evidence mix" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures likely trades with a positive-to-mixed tilt; upside depends on continued risk-off demand and no sharp hawkish rate repricing.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro: Fed/rate-expectations theme remains a primary gating variable", "precious_metals_flows: safe-haven reinforcement signals remain present", "mine_supply: operational/mining narratives create supply-side uncertainty (directionally mixed)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "reversal_risk: quick macro reprice can flip direction", "stale_overhang: several drivers show multi-week spans with intermittent resurfacing" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-SILVER-RISK-001", "market": "silver", "claim": "Reversal risk is elevated-to-moderate because the bullish impulse is partly macro-driven and sensitive to short-notice changes in rate expectations / USD.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "macro: rate-expectations dispersion across sources", "evidence_composition: mixed authority tiers and some singleton VIP items" ], "contradicted_by": [ "if geopolitical/safe-haven pressure remains dominant and rate expectations stay contained" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-SILVER-6H-001", "B-SILVER-24H-001", "B-SILVER-RISK-001" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-001", "market": "silver", "type": "macro_repricing_risk", "severity": "medium", "description": "Silver direction remains sensitive to short-horizon shifts in Fed/rate-expectations and USD tone; could flip bias quickly." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-002", "market": "silver", "type": "evidence_quality_mixture", "severity": "medium", "description": "Evidence mix includes meaningful low-authority share and several singleton VIP signals; increases fragility and reduces conviction ceiling." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-003", "market": "silver", "type": "narrative_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "description": "Competing macro narratives (risk-off vs tightening expectations) can produce whipsaw price action; treat momentum as conditional." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh supportive catalysts persist (risk-off/safe-haven reinforcement) without a hawkish rate repricing shock in the next 6h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) high-authority macro signal sharply shifts rate expectations against metals, or USD-strength narratives intensify." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If contradiction across macro drivers increases (more mixed headlines / rapid narrative rotation), raising intraday whipsaw probability." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "If bullish impulse fades and directional score falls back into neutral band while contradiction remains elevated." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.35, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -14, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 13, "acceleration_score": 16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.33, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -17, "contradiction_ratio": 0.34, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.37, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 48, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.43, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -6, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 53, "net_sentiment_score": -6, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.48, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 30, "fragility_score_0_100": 72, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 51, "bearish_pressure_score": 49, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": 8, "acceleration_score": 18, "contradiction_ratio": 0.45, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 4, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 70, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 8, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 8, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.41, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 38, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 45, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 40, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 12, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 44, "net_sentiment_score": 12, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.38, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 9, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 46, "net_sentiment_score": 9, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.44, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 68, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 16, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 16, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.4, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 15, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 15, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.39, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 17, "acceleration_score": 16, "contradiction_ratio": 0.36, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 3, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -6, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 17, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly: silver.", "Several supportive signals are macro/precious-metals spillover; silver-specific items exist but include single-source components.", "No late-breaking invalidation kill-switch triggered in this cycle; reversal risk remains medium due to macro sensitivity." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }