Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: macro_crosscurrents_rates_usd_vs_safe_haven (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-6h-rangebound-upside-bias | Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range with a mild upside bias than to trend decisively lower. | 54 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 63 |
| silver | B-silver-24h-macro-sensitive-mixed | Over the next 24 hours, silver futures are likely to remain highly macro-sensitive (rates/USD), limiting conviction despite supportive narratives. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260321T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 46, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-silver-6h-rangebound-upside-bias", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range with a mild upside bias than to trend decisively lower.", "probability_pct": 54, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "precious_metals_flows", "industrial_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "hawkish_surprise_in_rate_expectations", "broad_usd_strength_impulse" ] }, { "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-macro-sensitive-mixed", "market": "silver", "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver futures are likely to remain highly macro-sensitive (rates/USD), limiting conviction despite supportive precious-metals and industrial-demand narratives.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength", "precious_metals_flows", "mine_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "clear_policy_dovish_shift_confirmed", "sharp_risk_off_safe_haven_bid" ] } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "freshness_confidence": "medium", "catalyst_type": "unclear", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 63, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-silver-6h-rangebound-upside-bias", "B-silver-24h-macro-sensitive-mixed" ] } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "macro_crosscurrents_rates_usd_vs_safe_haven", "severity": "medium", "details": "Fresh macro/central-bank expectation narratives are active alongside safe-haven/precious-metals demand narratives, increasing whipsaw risk for silver." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang_slow_burn_themes_present", "severity": "medium", "details": "Several supporting narratives are multi-day slow-burn themes with mixed authority quality; they were downweighted to prevent over-anchoring." }, { "flag": "data_quality_mix_low_authority_share_nontrivial", "severity": "low", "details": "Some silver-adjacent signals include higher low-authority share; treated as background rather than primary directional evidence." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "stay_flat", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains inside the neutral band (|score| < 20) with medium reversal risk." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises and short-horizon directional score flips sign within a few buckets." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score sustains >= +20 with improving freshness confidence (fresh evidence dominance) while contradiction ratio stays contained." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "A fresh opposing macro signal arrives (<=2h) and materially increases contradiction ratio versus the current cycle." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "silver" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z", 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"bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 49, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 17, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 18, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -5, "acceleration_score": -8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 19, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 49, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 42, "bearish_pressure_score": 20, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 47, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 22, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 14, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 24, "net_sentiment_score": 14, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.25, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 10, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 10, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.24, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 6, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 6, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 6, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.23, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 39, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 4, "bullish_pressure_score": 33, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 4, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.22, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 37, "fragility_score_0_100": 67, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 2, "bullish_pressure_score": 32, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 2, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.21, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 35, "fragility_score_0_100": 65, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": -4, "bullish_pressure_score": 29, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": -4, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.2, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 8, "conviction_score_0_100": 33, "fragility_score_0_100": 66, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 1, "bullish_pressure_score": 31, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 1, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.19, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 7, "conviction_score_0_100": 36, "fragility_score_0_100": 64, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": -4, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 18, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 11, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 4, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to 'silver'; analysis constrained to single-market output.", "No explicit trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided; state_change computed versus an assumed prior of neutral_mixed (unknown_prior fallback).", "Multiple admitted narratives are relevant but directionally ambiguous for silver (rates/USD sensitivity vs safe-haven/industrial demand), elevating fragility and keeping headline state neutral_mixed.", "VIP outliers present but treated as low-authority single-source background; not used to raise conviction." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }