Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21 09:45 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Fragile
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 1

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-6H-001 Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range than trend cleanly, as precious-metals/industrial-demand narratives are being challenged by a very recent macro (rates/USD) headwind. 56 mixed fading 6h true 78
silver B-SILVER-24H-002 Over the next 24 hours, downside tail-risk is elevated if the latest rate-expectations / USD-strength narrative continues to print and is corroborated (a persistence condition), potentially overpowering incremental silver-positive flow headlines. 49 down accelerating 24h true 78
silver B-SILVER-24H-003 Over the next 24 hours, silver could stabilise-to-firm if silver-specific flow indicators (e.g., ETF/allocations headlines) re-accelerate and macro tightening expectations do not worsen (a negation condition). 47 up stable 24h true 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_silver_20260321T094500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T09:45:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-6H-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range than trend cleanly, as precious-metals/industrial-demand narratives are being challenged by a very recent macro (rates/USD) headwind.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "industrial_demand",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-24H-002"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, downside tail-risk is elevated if the latest rate-expectations / USD-strength narrative continues to print and is corroborated (a persistence condition), potentially overpowering incremental silver-positive flow headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 49,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "macro_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-6H-001",
 "B-SILVER-24H-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver could stabilise-to-firm if silver-specific flow indicators (e.g., ETF/allocations headlines) re-accelerate and macro tightening expectations do not worsen (a negation condition).",
 "probability_pct": 47,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "precious_metals_flows",
 "risk_sentiment"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-24H-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": true,
 "late_breaking_alert": true,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SILVER-6H-001",
 "B-SILVER-24H-002",
 "B-SILVER-24H-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "A very recent macro/rates-linked counter-signal (<=2h class, Tier-A anchored in the upstream feed) is opposing the previously persistent silver-positive flow/demand narrative; conviction is capped pending corroboration."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "high",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Co-existing silver-supportive flow/industrial-demand narratives and bearish macro (real-rates/USD) pressure are simultaneously active, raising reversal probability."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Several supportive silver narratives are persistent but not distinctly accelerating in the latest 0\u20136h window; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Attention shifted from silver-positive themes to macro headwinds within the last few hours, increasing short-horizon regime instability."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Directional synthesis is based on trend-level aggregates (no per-record physics in this payload slice); confidence is therefore conservative."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/rate-expectations headlines remain negative for precious metals across the next 2\u20136 hours while silver-specific inflow/industrial-demand signals do not re-accelerate."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional Tier-A / multi-source confirmation arrives reinforcing a higher-real-rates / stronger-USD impulse (or equivalent tightening narrative) within the next 0\u20136 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradictory themes (flows vs rates) continue printing in close succession, implying headline-driven whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Until contradiction ratio falls (one thesis dominates with fresh corroboration) and the kill-switch condition clears."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If silver-specific flows (ETF/allocation demand) show renewed acceleration AND macro tightening expectations soften."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro tightening expectations strengthen further AND silver-specific supportive narratives fade in recency-weighted heat."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "silver"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 55,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -11,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 53,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 17,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 3,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'; scope_mode forced to single_market.",
 "No explicit per-trend physics/contradiction matrices provided in this payload slice; used conservative fallback heuristics from recency (evidence newest timestamps), sentiment labels, and driver-arena relevance.",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel engaged: very recent macro/rates-linked opposing signal reduces conviction and raises fragility pending confirmation."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}