Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: late_breaking_invalidation
- generated_at: 2026-03-21 09:45 UTC
- sentiment_word: Fragile
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 1
- kill_switch_markets_count: 1
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-SILVER-6H-001 | Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range than trend cleanly, as precious-metals/industrial-demand narratives are being challenged by a very recent macro (rates/USD) headwind. | 56 | mixed | fading | 6h | true | 78 |
| silver | B-SILVER-24H-002 | Over the next 24 hours, downside tail-risk is elevated if the latest rate-expectations / USD-strength narrative continues to print and is corroborated (a persistence condition), potentially overpowering incremental silver-positive flow headlines. | 49 | down | accelerating | 24h | true | 78 |
| silver | B-SILVER-24H-003 | Over the next 24 hours, silver could stabilise-to-firm if silver-specific flow indicators (e.g., ETF/allocations headlines) re-accelerate and macro tightening expectations do not worsen (a negation condition). | 47 | up | stable | 24h | true | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_6B_silver_20260321T094500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T09:45:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-6H-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, silver futures are more likely to chop/range than trend cleanly, as precious-metals/industrial-demand narratives are being challenged by a very recent macro (rates/USD) headwind.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"industrial_demand",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-24H-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, downside tail-risk is elevated if the latest rate-expectations / USD-strength narrative continues to print and is corroborated (a persistence condition), potentially overpowering incremental silver-positive flow headlines.",
"probability_pct": 49,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"macro_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-6H-001",
"B-SILVER-24H-003"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-24H-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, silver could stabilise-to-firm if silver-specific flow indicators (e.g., ETF/allocations headlines) re-accelerate and macro tightening expectations do not worsen (a negation condition).",
"probability_pct": 47,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"precious_metals_flows",
"risk_sentiment"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-24H-002"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "invalidated_stale",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": true,
"late_breaking_alert": true,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SILVER-6H-001",
"B-SILVER-24H-002",
"B-SILVER-24H-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"severity": "high",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "A very recent macro/rates-linked counter-signal (<=2h class, Tier-A anchored in the upstream feed) is opposing the previously persistent silver-positive flow/demand narrative; conviction is capped pending corroboration."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "high",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Co-existing silver-supportive flow/industrial-demand narratives and bearish macro (real-rates/USD) pressure are simultaneously active, raising reversal probability."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Several supportive silver narratives are persistent but not distinctly accelerating in the latest 0\u20136h window; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Attention shifted from silver-positive themes to macro headwinds within the last few hours, increasing short-horizon regime instability."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Directional synthesis is based on trend-level aggregates (no per-record physics in this payload slice); confidence is therefore conservative."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/rate-expectations headlines remain negative for precious metals across the next 2\u20136 hours while silver-specific inflow/industrial-demand signals do not re-accelerate."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional Tier-A / multi-source confirmation arrives reinforcing a higher-real-rates / stronger-USD impulse (or equivalent tightening narrative) within the next 0\u20136 hours."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradictory themes (flows vs rates) continue printing in close succession, implying headline-driven whipsaw risk."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "Until contradiction ratio falls (one thesis dominates with fresh corroboration) and the kill-switch condition clears."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If silver-specific flows (ETF/allocation demand) show renewed acceleration AND macro tightening expectations soften."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If macro tightening expectations strengthen further AND silver-specific supportive narratives fade in recency-weighted heat."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"silver"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.27,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.47,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 55,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -11,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 53,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 24,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -10,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 17,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 1,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code='silver'; scope_mode forced to single_market.",
"No explicit per-trend physics/contradiction matrices provided in this payload slice; used conservative fallback heuristics from recency (evidence newest timestamps), sentiment labels, and driver-arena relevance.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel engaged: very recent macro/rates-linked opposing signal reduces conviction and raises fragility pending confirmation."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}