- Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: RF_REVERSAL_HIGH (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T17:16:02Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B_NG_001 | Near-term supply-risk narrative (LNG outage risk + geopolitical escalation risk) is skewing natural gas futures upward over the next 6h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 76 | | natural_gas | B_NG_002 | Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward, but the trade narrative is fragile and prone to sharp mean-reversion on de-escalation or outage clarity. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 76 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_2026-03-21T17:16:02Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T17:16:02Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B_NG_001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term supply-risk narrative (LNG outage risk + geopolitical escalation risk) is skewing natural gas futures upward over the next 6h.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Qatar LNG terminal outage risk / Ras Laffan operational risk cluster",
"Iran/Israel/Gulf escalation risk and Strait of Hormuz risk premium",
"Russia/Ukraine supply-shock narrative persistence (downweighted when stale)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Missing/underrepresented fundamentals: US weather-driven demand signals",
"Missing/underrepresented fundamentals: storage build/draw signals",
"Any rapid de-escalation / outage-resolution headlines (not present in admitted feed)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B_NG_002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward, but the trade narrative is fragile and prone to sharp mean-reversion on de-escalation or outage clarity.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained geopolitics-driven risk premium across LNG supply corridors",
"Clustered coverage breadth (multi-source) supporting ongoing risk attention"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If storage/demand data prints soft (not present in inputs)",
"If LNG outage risk is explicitly resolved (not present in inputs)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B_NG_001",
"B_NG_002"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF_RECENCY_SPIKE",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Signal mix is dominated by fresh geopolitics/outage headlines; price narrative can flip quickly if headlines fade."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF_CONTRADICTION_BLINDSPOT",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"description": "No explicit counter-signal stream on weather/storage fundamentals in admitted trends; directional view may be overfit to geopolitics."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF_REVERSAL_HIGH",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "high",
"description": "High reversal risk due to spike-and-fade/late-surge temporal profiles and event-resolution sensitivity."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF_DATA_SPARSITY_FUNDAMENTALS",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Driver arenas requested (weather_demand, storage, pipeline_flows) are not represented as dedicated trends in the provided evidence slice."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) LNG outage escalation or Gulf transit disruption headlines appear without offsetting storage/demand weakness signals, maintain watch_long_bias."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If any authoritative de-escalation/outage-resolution headline prints, shift to reversal_watch immediately (fragility already elevated)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If headline intensity fades for >12h and no new supply-risk evidence appears, treat as volatility_watch (risk premium decay)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If multiple fundamental bearish datapoints (storage builds + warm shift + production/pipeline normalization) appear, move to watch_short_bias."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"natural_gas"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 14,
"acceleration_score": 14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 51,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 51,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 61,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Directional mapping: negative geopolitics/outage sentiment interpreted as bullish price pressure (risk premium / supply constraint).",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); contradiction_ratio in timeseries reflects uncertainty/data sparsity rather than explicit opposing evidence.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as transition from unknown/neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}