1. Snapshot
  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF_REVERSAL_HIGH (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T17:16:02Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
  1. Signal Table | market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility | |---|---:|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:| | natural_gas | B_NG_001 | Near-term supply-risk narrative (LNG outage risk + geopolitical escalation risk) is skewing natural gas futures upward over the next 6h. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 76 | | natural_gas | B_NG_002 | Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward, but the trade narrative is fragile and prone to sharp mean-reversion on de-escalation or outage clarity. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 76 |

  2. Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_natural_gas_2026-03-21T17:16:02Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T17:16:02Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B_NG_001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-risk narrative (LNG outage risk + geopolitical escalation risk) is skewing natural gas futures upward over the next 6h.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Qatar LNG terminal outage risk / Ras Laffan operational risk cluster",
 "Iran/Israel/Gulf escalation risk and Strait of Hormuz risk premium",
 "Russia/Ukraine supply-shock narrative persistence (downweighted when stale)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Missing/underrepresented fundamentals: US weather-driven demand signals",
 "Missing/underrepresented fundamentals: storage build/draw signals",
 "Any rapid de-escalation / outage-resolution headlines (not present in admitted feed)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B_NG_002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, natural gas futures remain biased upward, but the trade narrative is fragile and prone to sharp mean-reversion on de-escalation or outage clarity.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Sustained geopolitics-driven risk premium across LNG supply corridors",
 "Clustered coverage breadth (multi-source) supporting ongoing risk attention"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If storage/demand data prints soft (not present in inputs)",
 "If LNG outage risk is explicitly resolved (not present in inputs)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "high",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B_NG_001",
 "B_NG_002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF_RECENCY_SPIKE",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Signal mix is dominated by fresh geopolitics/outage headlines; price narrative can flip quickly if headlines fade."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF_CONTRADICTION_BLINDSPOT",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "No explicit counter-signal stream on weather/storage fundamentals in admitted trends; directional view may be overfit to geopolitics."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF_REVERSAL_HIGH",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "high",
 "description": "High reversal risk due to spike-and-fade/late-surge temporal profiles and event-resolution sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF_DATA_SPARSITY_FUNDAMENTALS",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Driver arenas requested (weather_demand, storage, pipeline_flows) are not represented as dedicated trends in the provided evidence slice."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh (<=6h) LNG outage escalation or Gulf transit disruption headlines appear without offsetting storage/demand weakness signals, maintain watch_long_bias."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If any authoritative de-escalation/outage-resolution headline prints, shift to reversal_watch immediately (fragility already elevated)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline intensity fades for >12h and no new supply-risk evidence appears, treat as volatility_watch (risk premium decay)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If multiple fundamental bearish datapoints (storage builds + warm shift + production/pipeline normalization) appear, move to watch_short_bias."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 14,
 "acceleration_score": 14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 43,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 51,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 51,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 61,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Directional mapping: negative geopolitics/outage sentiment interpreted as bullish price pressure (risk premium / supply constraint).",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty); contradiction_ratio in timeseries reflects uncertainty/data sparsity rather than explicit opposing evidence.",
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change treated as transition from unknown/neutral baseline -> new_bullish."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}