Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21 10:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term (6h) upside bias persists as supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk remains the dominant marginal driver in the newsflow. 62 up accelerating 6h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24h, price action is likely to be volatility-dominant with upside tail-risk, but fragile due to headline reversals and partial reliance on event-risk framing rather than measurable demand/storage deltas. 68 mixed stable 24h false 74
natural_gas B-NG-003 Reversal risk is meaningful: if outage/disruption narratives fail to confirm or are walked back, the risk premium can compress quickly (intraday mean reversion). 46 down fading 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260321T100000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) upside bias persists as supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk remains the dominant marginal driver in the newsflow.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "LNG terminal/outage narratives (Ras Laffan/Qatar-related outage chatter)",
 "Geopolitical risk premium (Middle East / shipping corridor sensitivity)",
 "Clustered Tier-A coverage (Reuters/FT/Bloomberg mix in admitted trends)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fast de-escalation headlines (not present in admitted inputs)",
 "Evidence quality dilution from single-source VIP items (echo-risk)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, price action is likely to be volatility-dominant with upside tail-risk, but fragile due to headline reversals and partial reliance on event-risk framing rather than measurable demand/storage deltas.",
 "probability_pct": 68,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-driven risk premium (geopolitics, infrastructure security)",
 "Increased narrative density and reinforcement across related LNG themes",
 "Lack of explicit countervailing weather/storage signals in this slice"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Clear weather-demand softening or storage surprise (not supplied in admitted inputs)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-003",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is meaningful: if outage/disruption narratives fail to confirm or are walked back, the risk premium can compress quickly (intraday mean reversion).",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Headline-driven positioning unwind risk",
 "Mixed authority in long tail of sources (low-tier share elevated in several bundles)",
 "Geopolitical 'spike-and-fade' temporal profiles in multiple trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "New hard-confirmed supply loss / physical flow constraint (not explicitly present as confirmed fact in admitted inputs)"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002",
 "B-NG-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/outage narratives that can reverse quickly with new statements or de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_risk_premium_fragility",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Directional bias relies on risk-premium logic (supply disruption fear) rather than direct weather/storage/flow datapoints in this input slice."
 },
 {
 "flag": "source_mix_echo_risk_tail",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source/echo-risk; they are down-weighted but increase noise and reversal sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional Tier-A confirmation of LNG outage / physical supply constraint within the next 6h bucket(s) without material counter-headlines."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Further clustering of geopolitical infrastructure/security headlines (or shipping corridor escalation) inside a 2\u20134h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Any credible de-escalation / outage-resolution headline sequence that reduces the disruption probability, especially if it appears within <=2h of prior bullish impulse."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradictory high-authority signal appears (<=2h) that directly negates the disruption narrative; would raise kill-switch risk in the next cycle."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Directional interpretation maps supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk to upward price pressure despite many items being 'Negative' in narrative sentiment.",
 "No explicit high-authority <=2h opposing catalyst detected in admitted inputs; kill-switch not triggered.",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior; unknown prior treated as neutral baseline for state transition."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}