Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: headline_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21 10:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | B-NG-001 | Near-term (6h) upside bias persists as supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk remains the dominant marginal driver in the newsflow. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 74 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-002 | Over the next 24h, price action is likely to be volatility-dominant with upside tail-risk, but fragile due to headline reversals and partial reliance on event-risk framing rather than measurable demand/storage deltas. | 68 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 74 |
| natural_gas | B-NG-003 | Reversal risk is meaningful: if outage/disruption narratives fail to confirm or are walked back, the risk premium can compress quickly (intraday mean reversion). | 46 | down | fading | 24h | false | 74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260321T100000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) upside bias persists as supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk remains the dominant marginal driver in the newsflow.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"LNG terminal/outage narratives (Ras Laffan/Qatar-related outage chatter)",
"Geopolitical risk premium (Middle East / shipping corridor sensitivity)",
"Clustered Tier-A coverage (Reuters/FT/Bloomberg mix in admitted trends)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fast de-escalation headlines (not present in admitted inputs)",
"Evidence quality dilution from single-source VIP items (echo-risk)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, price action is likely to be volatility-dominant with upside tail-risk, but fragile due to headline reversals and partial reliance on event-risk framing rather than measurable demand/storage deltas.",
"probability_pct": 68,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Event-driven risk premium (geopolitics, infrastructure security)",
"Increased narrative density and reinforcement across related LNG themes",
"Lack of explicit countervailing weather/storage signals in this slice"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Clear weather-demand softening or storage surprise (not supplied in admitted inputs)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Reversal risk is meaningful: if outage/disruption narratives fail to confirm or are walked back, the risk premium can compress quickly (intraday mean reversion).",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Headline-driven positioning unwind risk",
"Mixed authority in long tail of sources (low-tier share elevated in several bundles)",
"Geopolitical 'spike-and-fade' temporal profiles in multiple trends"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"New hard-confirmed supply loss / physical flow constraint (not explicitly present as confirmed fact in admitted inputs)"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Dominant drivers are geopolitical/outage narratives that can reverse quickly with new statements or de-escalation."
},
{
"flag": "event_risk_premium_fragility",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional bias relies on risk-premium logic (supply disruption fear) rather than direct weather/storage/flow datapoints in this input slice."
},
{
"flag": "source_mix_echo_risk_tail",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source/echo-risk; they are down-weighted but increase noise and reversal sensitivity."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Additional Tier-A confirmation of LNG outage / physical supply constraint within the next 6h bucket(s) without material counter-headlines."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Further clustering of geopolitical infrastructure/security headlines (or shipping corridor escalation) inside a 2\u20134h window."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Any credible de-escalation / outage-resolution headline sequence that reduces the disruption probability, especially if it appears within <=2h of prior bullish impulse."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Contradictory high-authority signal appears (<=2h) that directly negates the disruption narrative; would raise kill-switch risk in the next cycle."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.17,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 42,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Directional interpretation maps supply-disruption / LNG-outage risk to upward price pressure despite many items being 'Negative' in narrative sentiment.",
"No explicit high-authority <=2h opposing catalyst detected in admitted inputs; kill-switch not triggered.",
"State_change computed with unknown prior; unknown prior treated as neutral baseline for state transition."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}