Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_geopolitical_premium
- generated_at: 2026-03-21 06:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG-B1 | Near-term natural gas futures are skewed upward by LNG supply/disruption and geopolitical risk-premium narratives (Qatar/Iran-region focus), increasing perceived scarcity risk. | 58 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 78 |
| natural_gas | NG-B2 | The upside risk-premium is fragile and can unwind quickly on de-escalation / outage-resolution headlines, creating elevated pullback risk even if the underlying backdrop remains tense. | 54 | down | stable | 24h | false | 78 |
| natural_gas | NG-B3 | Storage/inventory chatter signals (thin, low-diversity sources in the feed) modestly cap conviction and increase two-sided risk rather than setting a clean directional trend. | 46 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260321T060000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG-B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures are skewed upward by LNG supply/disruption and geopolitical risk-premium narratives (Qatar/Iran-region focus), increasing perceived scarcity risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"pipeline_flows",
"geopolitical_risk_premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B2",
"NG-B3"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "The upside risk-premium is fragile and can unwind quickly on de-escalation / outage-resolution headlines, creating elevated pullback risk even if the underlying backdrop remains tense.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"headline_deescalation_risk",
"event_resolution_risk",
"crowded_risk_premium_unwind"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "NG-B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Storage/inventory chatter signals (thin, low-diversity sources in the feed) modestly cap conviction and increase two-sided risk rather than setting a clean directional trend.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage",
"data_sparsity_low_authority"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"NG-B1"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG-B1",
"NG-B2",
"NG-B3"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_geopolitical_premium",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Directional tilt relies heavily on geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives; prone to fast headline reversals."
},
{
"flag": "momentum_deceleration",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Recent hourly signal shows a small pullback after a late upswing (bullish but weakening)."
},
{
"flag": "low_authority_echo_risk_in_outliers",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several VIP/outlier items are single-source and/or low-tier; treated as low weight and partially stale-suppressed."
},
{
"flag": "arena_coverage_gap_weather_storage",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Weather demand and confirmed storage datapoints are not strongly represented in the admitted signal set; increases uncertainty."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "watch_long_bias: if fresh, high-authority confirmation of LNG outage/escalation appears within the next 2\u20136 hours without offsetting storage/demand negatives."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "volatility_watch: if additional geopolitical headlines cluster (>=2 distinct high-authority items inside 2 hours) OR if sharp contradiction emerges."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "reversal_watch: if credible de-escalation/outage-resolution headlines arrive within 2 hours and the directional score drops below +20."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.296,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.292,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.288,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.288,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.292,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.288,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.284,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.276,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.268,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.264,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.244,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.248,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.252,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.256,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.264,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.26,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.252,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.248,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.24,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.228,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.232,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 4,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No per-trend physics/trend_state_memory supplied; used legacy approximations from recency, confidence, tags, and temporal heat.",
"Prior market state not supplied; state_change computed assuming prior=neutral_mixed.",
"Contradictions array empty; reversal risk inferred from momentum deceleration + mixed (thin) storage/inventory outliers rather than explicit contradiction records."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}