- subject_area: LNG supply disruption / Middle East escalation (Qatar/Iran)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_spike (high)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T21:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term natural gas pricing skew remains to the upside due to global LNG supply disruption risk (Qatar/Iran / Gulf logistics) feeding export-linked demand expectations. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
76 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Policy-driven demand relief (EU storage-target easing) can cap rallies and increase whipsaw risk as markets reprice winter security needs versus affordability. |
55 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
76 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Volatility remains elevated with high reversal risk: headline-driven escalation/de-escalation or policy clarification can rapidly flip the dominant direction. |
67 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
76 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260321T213000Z-natural_gas-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T21:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "LNG supply disruption / Middle East escalation (Qatar/Iran)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Reversal-Risk",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas pricing skew remains to the upside due to global LNG supply disruption risk (Qatar/Iran / Gulf logistics) feeding export-linked demand expectations.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"production_outages",
"pipeline_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-002"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Policy-driven demand relief (EU storage-target easing) can cap rallies and increase whipsaw risk as markets reprice winter security needs versus affordability.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"storage",
"weather_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-NG-001"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility remains elevated with high reversal risk: headline-driven escalation/de-escalation or policy clarification can rapidly flip the dominant direction.",
"probability_pct": 67,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"export_lng",
"storage",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": []
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "high",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "reversal_warning",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "high",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Fresh bullish supply-disruption signals coincide with fresh bearish demand/policy offset signals (storage target easing), raising whipsaw probability."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_risk",
"severity": "high",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Conflict-linked LNG infrastructure / chokepoint narratives dominate; direction can flip on escalation/de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "policy_offset_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Regulatory/storage-target adjustments may dampen demand urgency and reduce price pressure even during supply stress."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_local_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "natural_gas",
"detail": "Inputs are heavily geopolitical/LNG-linked; limited direct read-through provided here on local weather-driven demand and storage balances."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional high-authority confirmation of sustained LNG supply disruption/outage duration appears without simultaneous demand-relief expansion."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If policy signals (storage target easing / coordinated demand reduction) broaden or if de-escalation headlines materially reduce supply-risk premium."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio remains elevated with fast-changing headlines (infrastructure status, shipping routes, diplomatic statements)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional score falls back into neutral band (between -20 and +20) while fragility stays high (>=70)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"natural_gas"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.29,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.38,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.39,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.58,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 52,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.62,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 83,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.6,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 18,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Scope locked to single market: natural_gas (explicit).",
"No v2 trend_physics fields provided in input; used timestamp/velocity_hint/temporal_profile proxies for recency + momentum.",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel evaluated: not triggered (no clear single opposing micro-signal with dominance override; opposition is part of the main mixed policy/supply narrative)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}