Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: mixed_supply_demand_drivers (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T21:18:37Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-1 |
Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures sentiment is modestly upward-biased, driven by EV adoption/manufacturing capacity narratives outweighing near-term supply/efficiency offsets. |
57 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
63 |
| lithium |
B-LI-2 |
Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures sentiment remains slightly bullish but fragile due to mixed demand-growth vs supply/technology narratives and low-to-moderate contradiction. |
60 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
63 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_lithium_20260321T211837Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T21:18:37Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 6 hours, lithium futures sentiment is modestly upward-biased, driven by EV adoption/manufacturing capacity narratives outweighing near-term supply/efficiency offsets.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption momentum (BYD / OEM electrification narratives)",
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion themes (Tesla-related capacity buildout)",
"Policy / supply-chain support backdrop (DOE/critical-minerals framing)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Recycling scale-up narratives (potentially reducing marginal primary lithium demand over time)",
"Extraction/DLE and producer expansion narratives (potential supply easing)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, lithium futures sentiment remains slightly bullish but fragile due to mixed demand-growth vs supply/technology narratives and low-to-moderate contradiction.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Sustained EV electrification theme across multiple OEMs",
"Battery ecosystem buildout and policy attention to critical minerals"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply expansion / extraction technology improvements",
"Recycling and chemistry innovation lowering intensity-per-kWh risk"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-1",
"B-LI-2"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "mixed_supply_demand_drivers",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"lithium"
],
"details": "Demand-positive EV/battery buildout signals coexist with supply/efficiency narratives (recycling, extraction/DLE), raising contradiction and reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "authority_mix_low_tier_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"lithium"
],
"details": "Evidence mix skews toward lower-tier sources across multiple admitted trends; freshness exists but trust-weight is capped."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"markets": [
"lithium"
],
"details": "Short-horizon sentiment can swing between demand-growth headlines and supply/technology offsets; monitor for sharp contradiction jumps."
},
{
"flag": "physics_fields_missing_heuristic_synthesis",
"severity": "low",
"markets": [
"lithium"
],
"details": "No explicit trend_physics/trend_state_memory provided in input; directional synthesis relies on recency + driver-type heuristics."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain net directional score >= +20 with contradiction_ratio <= 0.35 across the next 2\u20134 hourly buckets."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh bearish-coded supply/efficiency evidence_count >= 2 inside a <= 6h window AND contradiction_ratio rises above 0.5."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed oscillates by >= 25 points within 3 consecutive buckets (whipsaw regime)."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed falls inside [-10, +10] for >= 6 consecutive buckets (rangebound/indecision)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -13,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 26,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -13,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -6,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T18:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T19:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T19:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T20:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.28,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T20:18:37Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T21:18:37Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.48,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 28,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.",
"No contradictions objects provided; contradiction assessed heuristically from mixed driver-types (demand-growth vs recycling/supply-tech).",
"No prior market state memory available in input; state_change treated as neutral_mixed -> bullish = new_bullish."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}