- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is likely to remain mixed/flat because demand-positive EV/battery scale signals are offset by supply/secondary-supply (extraction/recycling) narratives. |
56 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
68 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Downside risk is non-trivial in the next 24h if supply-expansion framing dominates (extraction + recycling), increasing perceived oversupply risk. |
44 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
68 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
In the next 6h, near-term sentiment skew is slightly upward if EV/battery manufacturing expansion headlines remain the freshest drivers. |
52 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
68 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260321T180000Z-lithium-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is likely to remain mixed/flat because demand-positive EV/battery scale signals are offset by supply/secondary-supply (extraction/recycling) narratives.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / battery capacity expansion themes (demand support)",
"Battery recycling scale-up (secondary supply / substitution pressure)",
"Extraction / resource-development headlines (potential supply increase)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"A single dominant, very-fresh macro policy shock (not present in admitted inputs)"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Downside risk is non-trivial in the next 24h if supply-expansion framing dominates (extraction + recycling), increasing perceived oversupply risk.",
"probability_pct": 44,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Lithium extraction / resource-development signalling",
"Recycling narrative reinforcing future secondary supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, high-authority confirmation of accelerating EV demand/production constraints tightening lithium availability"
]
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "In the next 6h, near-term sentiment skew is slightly upward if EV/battery manufacturing expansion headlines remain the freshest drivers.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Battery manufacturing capacity expansion theme",
"EV adoption signalling"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh substitution/chemistry-shift headlines implying lower lithium intensity",
"Fresh supply-side announcements with high authority"
]
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
]
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Most narratives are medium-term and many signals have multi-day spans; fresh items exist but do not fully dominate."
},
{
"flag": "cross_driver_contradiction",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Demand-support (EV adoption / battery buildout) conflicts with supply/secondary-supply framing (extraction + recycling)."
},
{
"flag": "data_authority_mix_skew",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Several supporting items show high low-authority share and/or single-source VIP outliers, raising fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Directional score remains within neutral band (|score| < 20) with medium contradiction and no late-breaking Tier-A directional shock."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing supply-vs-demand headlines cluster inside a short window (<=6h), raising contradiction ratio and fragility."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-fresh (<=2h) signal appears that cleanly flips net pressure beyond ±120 for at least 2 consecutive buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 28,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 4,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -15,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 30,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 71,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 18,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 27,
"acceleration_score": 27,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 27,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 27,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit per-trend physics fields found (trend_physics/trend_state_memory absent); used timestamp recency proxies, sentiment tags, and domain/authority mix as conservative heuristics.",
"No contradictions/risk_anomalies provided; contradiction ratios reflect inferred cross-driver tension (demand vs supply narratives) rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
"Prior market state not supplied to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}