• subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21T18:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-001 Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is likely to remain mixed/flat because demand-positive EV/battery scale signals are offset by supply/secondary-supply (extraction/recycling) narratives. 56 mixed stable 24h false 68
lithium B-LI-002 Downside risk is non-trivial in the next 24h if supply-expansion framing dominates (extraction + recycling), increasing perceived oversupply risk. 44 down fading 24h false 68
lithium B-LI-003 In the next 6h, near-term sentiment skew is slightly upward if EV/battery manufacturing expansion headlines remain the freshest drivers. 52 up accelerating 6h false 68
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260321T180000Z-lithium-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, lithium futures sentiment is likely to remain mixed/flat because demand-positive EV/battery scale signals are offset by supply/secondary-supply (extraction/recycling) narratives.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / battery capacity expansion themes (demand support)",
 "Battery recycling scale-up (secondary supply / substitution pressure)",
 "Extraction / resource-development headlines (potential supply increase)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "A single dominant, very-fresh macro policy shock (not present in admitted inputs)"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Downside risk is non-trivial in the next 24h if supply-expansion framing dominates (extraction + recycling), increasing perceived oversupply risk.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Lithium extraction / resource-development signalling",
 "Recycling narrative reinforcing future secondary supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, high-authority confirmation of accelerating EV demand/production constraints tightening lithium availability"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "In the next 6h, near-term sentiment skew is slightly upward if EV/battery manufacturing expansion headlines remain the freshest drivers.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion theme",
 "EV adoption signalling"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh substitution/chemistry-shift headlines implying lower lithium intensity",
 "Fresh supply-side announcements with high authority"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-001",
 "B-LI-002",
 "B-LI-003"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Most narratives are medium-term and many signals have multi-day spans; fresh items exist but do not fully dominate."
 },
 {
 "flag": "cross_driver_contradiction",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Demand-support (EV adoption / battery buildout) conflicts with supply/secondary-supply framing (extraction + recycling)."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_authority_mix_skew",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Several supporting items show high low-authority share and/or single-source VIP outliers, raising fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains within neutral band (|score| < 20) with medium contradiction and no late-breaking Tier-A directional shock."
 },
 {
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh opposing supply-vs-demand headlines cluster inside a short window (<=6h), raising contradiction ratio and fragility."
 },
 {
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-authority, very-fresh (<=2h) signal appears that cleanly flips net pressure beyond ±120 for at least 2 consecutive buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 28,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -5,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 4,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -15,
 "acceleration_score": -15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 71,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 7,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 18,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 27,
 "acceleration_score": 27,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.4,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 27,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -15,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 27,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit per-trend physics fields found (trend_physics/trend_state_memory absent); used timestamp recency proxies, sentiment tags, and domain/authority mix as conservative heuristics.",
 "No contradictions/risk_anomalies provided; contradiction ratios reflect inferred cross-driver tension (demand vs supply narratives) rather than explicit contradiction objects.",
 "Prior market state not supplied to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}