Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_direct_lithium_inventory
  • generated_at: 2026-03-21 09:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-lithium-001 Demand-side signals (EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity activity) are net supportive of lithium futures over the next 24 hours. 60 up accelerating 24h false 58
lithium B-lithium-002 Policy and supply-chain investment narratives remain broadly supportive, but are not sufficiently time-precise to create high-conviction near-term price impulse. 56 up stable 6h false 58
lithium B-lithium-003 Recycling/technology narratives increase medium-term supply efficiency and can cap upside, raising the chance of short-term rangebound trade rather than a clean trend. 44 mixed stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-lithium-20260321-093000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-03-21T09:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-001",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Demand-side signals (EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity activity) are net supportive of lithium futures over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "ev_demand",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-003"
 ]
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-002",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Policy and supply-chain investment narratives remain broadly supportive, but are not sufficiently time-precise to create high-conviction near-term price impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "china_policy",
 "refining_capacity",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": []
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-lithium-003",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Recycling/technology narratives increase medium-term supply efficiency and can cap upside, raising the chance of short-term rangebound trade rather than a clean trend.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "inventory",
 "battery_supply_chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-lithium-001"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-lithium-001",
 "B-lithium-002"
 ]
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_direct_lithium_inventory",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Inputs are rich in EV/battery ecosystem signals but thin on direct lithium inventory/spot-tightness confirmation inside the last 24h."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Several supporting narratives are persistent/slow-burn; conviction capped despite recent surges in related signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_mix_skew_low",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "Evidence bundles show a high share of lower-authority sources; increases whipsaw/echo risk even when sentiment is positive."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "lithium",
 "detail": "No explicit contradiction objects detected, but multi-actor EV and policy narratives can flip quickly on incremental news."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional score remains >= +20 with fresh evidence count rising in the next 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Contradiction ratio rises materially (e.g., >0.25) or late-breaking opposing signal appears within <=2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "A high-authority fresh counter-signal (<=2h) emerges that flips net sentiment to <= -20."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 6,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-20T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-03-21T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-03-21T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 38,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -14,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Scope locked to single market (explicit target_market_code=lithium).",
 "No contradictions/risk_anomalies objects supplied; reversal_risk raised to 'medium' primarily due to indirectness of drivers and authority-mix skew rather than explicit opposing evidence.",
 "State change computed with unknown prior; treated as neutral -> bullish for state machine output."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}